“The threat of terrorism in Switzerland could increase”: security expert warns of escalation Indefinite delay: top post in US Congress still vacant

Thomas Greminger knows some Hamas representatives personally. He once negotiated on behalf of the Federal Council with representatives of the organization to defuse the conflict with Israel. At the time, he headed the human security department of the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He subsequently worked for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), leading negotiations in the conflict in Ukraine.

Today, the 62-year-old heads the Geneva Center for Security Policy. His employees introduce him as “Mr. Ambassador”. However, in conversations he comes across as straightforward and direct.

From 2005 onwards, they negotiated with Hamas representatives for years. How did you experience this?
Thomas Greminger: We spoke to representatives of the moderate wing of Hamas and found them to be relatively approachable and pragmatic.

Why was Switzerland the first country to seek dialogue with these extremists?
There were already some radical elements then, but also many moderate circles. We wanted to get this part of the movement on our side, so that it too does not become radicalized. The moderate forces should have distanced themselves from the Hamas dictum that all Israelis should be pushed into the sea. Even then it was a very sensitive issue. We have tried to conduct the negotiations as discreetly as possible. But we didn’t keep it a secret either and over time we talked about it publicly

Why did the negotiations fail?
Hamas wanted to eventually enter into dialogue with more important players than Switzerland. We wanted to involve the EU in the dialogue. There was also great interest in it among EU diplomats. But there was resistance among EU member states. So the project failed. Hamas became increasingly radicalized in later years

Afterwards it becomes clear that it was dangerous to become involved with a terrorist organization.
I see it the other way around. When Hamas won the first elections, it still seemed possible to work with the moderate currents. If this dialogue could have continued, we might have prevented radicalization

Do you blame the EU for its failure?
No. Assigning blame doesn’t help. Above all, it was a missed opportunity for international diplomacy. We were disappointed at the time that none of the major players entered into dialogue

The Federal Council now wants to classify Hamas as a terrorist organization. Justifiably?
Yes, Hamas’s actions are terrorist. It is therefore logical that the Federal Council calls it that. But even with a terrorist organization you could have a dialogue if you wanted to. However, informal, confidential spaces should be created to explore possibilities for negotiations. But that’s probably not a problem right now…

The counterattack against Hamas now begins in Israel. What worst case scenario do you expect?
The big question is how the Arab world will respond to an Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Will Hezbollah and Iran add fuel to the fire and attack Israel from Lebanon? Then Israel will probably retaliate en masse there too. Another question is whether the West Bank will also be involved in the military conflict. The perception of the brutality of a ground offensive could make people in the Arab states even angrier. They could put pressure on their governments to massively tighten their stance toward Israel. In this way, the old hostilities between the Arab countries and Israel could break out again

Do you also see reason for hope?
There are key players in the region, such as the US, that are not interested in further escalation. If Israel’s response were moderate, the parties might find themselves talking again, at least in the medium term, and trying to fundamentally resolve the Palestinian issue. The best would still be a two-state solution. But given the hatred Hamas has stoked, this seems politically unrealistic, at least in the short term

What does the new conflict in the Middle East mean for the war in Ukraine?
Both sides will exploit him for their own purposes, as Putin’s statement shows. An interesting side aspect will be the Iranian drones: where will Iran deliver them if Hamas will also have a greater need for them? Iran claims that Russia can now produce these itself. But we don’t know if that’s true…

Did you think we would ever experience two such major wars at the same time?
No, that’s amazing. This is the worrying trend of the 21st century: conflicts are increasingly being resolved militarily

What effects do you expect for Switzerland?
If the conflict in the Middle East continues for a long time, the terrorist threat in Switzerland – as in the whole of Western and Central Europe – could increase again. Other Islamist groups such as IS could show solidarity with Hamas and use the war for their own purposes

What connects IS terrorists to Hamas?
The Palestinian issue has always been an important justification for Islamist terror. Now IS is getting new political arguments. Direct relations between the terrorist organizations are not necessary for this. The very fact that a bloody war is being waged against Hamas could bring other Islamists onto the scene

However, the terrorist organization IS appears to have been destroyed.
Yes. It is highly individualized. Recent terrorist actions have been carried out by lone wolves. If a long, brutal war breaks out, more individual perpetrators may become active again and try to organize themselves better. The escalations in the Middle East are a great opportunity for IS terrorists to mobilize more strongly again. We will see if the West is well equipped to prevent this. (aargauerzeitung.ch).