Ukraine likely planning a “Crimea invasion”: expert warns of dramatic consequences Indefinite postponement: top position in the US Congress still vacant

Crimea has been in the hands of the Russians since the spring of 2014 after they occupied and annexed the island in violation of international law. Since then, the Kremlin has converted it into a true military fortress. Because it is considered the main base in the war against Ukraine.

In the past, there have been repeated short-term landing operations by Ukrainian special forces in Crimea. “For the most part, it remains a TikTok campaign, where a small crew lands, raises the flag in front of cameras and immediately leaves.”says conflict observer Nikita Gerasimov of the Free University of Berlin, asked by Watson. Because it is certainly about symbolic power.

Crimea is very symbolic for Ukraine and Russia

There were repeated explosions on the Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge. It is the only connection between the Russian mainland and Russian-occupied Crimea. About five years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself opened the bridge. It is considered a prestige project with great symbolic power intended to consolidate Russia’s claim on the Ukrainian peninsula.

According to Gerasimov, Ukrainian actions in Crimea therefore provide good PR. In other words, media-effective images for both home and abroad. Because: The media aspect of the war in Ukraine remains an important part of military successes. «Domestic audiences need images to maintain morale. Foreign countries, that is to say the West, need to be convinced of further arms deliveries,” says the expert.

On the other hand, the images are intended to cause uncertainty, resentment and criticism of the Kremlin. According to the motto: he cannot even guarantee the safety of the Crimean coast.

On the other hand, according to Gerasimov, such actions have an important logistical effect: they tie up significant Russian forces on the peninsula, which are engaged in permanent coastal surveillance. As a result, these troops cannot be deployed on the actual front.

Apparently they will have to dress warmly soon. “Not many people in the West expect there to be a large-scale landing.”says Gerasimov. For example, the British tabloid ‘Daily Express’ reports that a landing operation with massive naval and air support is imminent.

Ukrainians train for Britain’s Crimean invasion

British troops are training an elite Ukrainian brigade to weaken Russian forces and retake Crimea, it is said. More than 2,000 soldiers are taking part in special exercises at a remote location on Dartmoor. They should form the “spearhead of the invasion” while two other forces launch simultaneous attacks.

In addition, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, is said to have confirmed that troops will enter Crimea “soon.” And that before Christmas, December 25.

The expert criticizes this company. According to him, the Ukrainian army is currently not prepared for a large-scale landing operation in Crimea. He says:

Neither one nor the other is currently the case for the Ukrainian military.

Expert warns: Ukraine is not prepared for such an operation

Kiev has no air sovereignty, nor does it have a navy that could support a large-scale landing operation. “Under these circumstances, such an operation risks becoming a suicide mission for the troops involved,” the expert warns.

The Ukrainian army certainly could not simply tolerate that. For Gerasimov it is clear: a large-scale landing operation by Ukrainian forces in Crimea with a subsequent expansion of the bridgehead and an advance into the interior of the peninsula remains hardly conceivable, at least under current conditions.

However, he expects an increase in smaller landing operations, as has happened several times. Meanwhile, another theory is circulating among Russian war reporters.

Ukraine could also be planning something completely different

“They assume that the Ukrainian actions in Crimea are ‘just’ a deliberate distraction. The actual landing operation will therefore be prepared further west, for example on the Kinburn Peninsula,” Gerasimov explains.

This would allow Ukraine to open a new front, allowing Russian forces to move behind actual defensive positions on the east coast of the Dnieper. “For example, the chances of military success of a landing at the Kinburn Arch are actually much higher and could pose significant problems for Russian forces,” Gerasimov predicts.

But Ukraine needs sufficient weapons and soldiers for such a landing – the latter worries Kiev, says Gerasimov.

Ukraine is already paying a heavy price in blood

“The West is currently maintaining the flow of weapons to Ukraine and even wants to expand it for some types of weapons, but Kiev is more concerned about personnel,” Gerasimov said. Whichever way you look at it, he says, Ukraine has a “human resource” that is many times smaller than Russia. ‘It is becoming increasingly difficult to fill these. And the losses are increasing, even though the harsh war censors would like to hide this fact, he explains.

“Images of new Ukrainian war graves are flooding the internet, including in Ukraine,” he says. In other words: The toll in blood is enormous. The land gain is low. “The danger of the Ukrainian army bleeding dry should not be underestimated,” Gerasimov said.