“The time for the attack was carefully chosen” Climate crisis: 43 million minors had to flee in the past six years

Armed Palestinians have stormed Israeli cities. Has something like this happened before in the recent past?
Hans Lucas Kieser: No, not to this extent. In the 1950s there were so-called ‘infiltrations’ by irregular Palestinian forces. Some of them were simply refugees who wanted to return. Otherwise, conventional wars were fought in the region – in 1948, 1967 and 1973. There, regular armies tried to invade Israel. However, they did not succeed. That is why we are experiencing a premiere today.

The Israeli army seems surprised. Would you agree with that?
There is a surprise effect. There is no other way to explain Hamas’ massive airstrike. In addition, armed Palestinians were able to breach the border fence and drive vehicles into Israeli cities. Benjamin Netanyahu hardly expected this. With more than twenty Israeli dead, the attack is already traumatic. The jihadists attack all Jews, try to take hostages and kill as many as possible.

All this on a Jewish holiday…
The attack has parallels to that in 1973. Today’s attack takes place during the Sabbath. And Israel is currently celebrating the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah. In 1973, the attack was also launched during a holiday – which is why the conflict went down in history as the Yom Kippur War.

Netanyahu announced that he would strike back en masse. What should the Palestinians expect now?
You should expect enormous reprisals. Israel will now launch attacks on anything that looks like a launching pad and Hamas. Over the past two decades, Israel has carried out several retaliatory attacks, usually with heavy casualties. This is also because Hamas has deliberately placed its bases in settlement areas. This allows them to hide well on the one hand and to stir up global outrage on the other.

Will there be days of fighting now?
That’s hard to say. You have to be aware that Iran is behind Hamas. Islamic Jihad has also joined the offensive. In the worst case, Hezbollah joins the attacks. It is based in northern Israel and is many times stronger than Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, I currently assume that the attack will only be carried out from the south. It is likely that Israel will drive back or kill the fighters in a relatively short time. An invasion of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli army is also conceivable. However, overall the situation is unpredictable.

Iran just praised Hamas’ actions.
The big question is what Iran wants. Tehran is largely in charge. However, the Iranians usually calculate very carefully how far they want to escalate the situation.

Do today’s attacks have the potential to become a major fire?
Yes absolutely. The time of the attack was carefully chosen. It’s not just a Jewish holiday. Israeli society is also highly polarized as a result of the right-wing extremist government. At the same time, there is a general climate of war. The Turkish army is very active and carries out attacks on Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Add to this the recent war in the Caucasus and the war in Ukraine. The situation is currently very flammable.