Expert: “A quite risky moment for Ukraine” “China is the big loser of the war in Ukraine”

For the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky will be in New York, and for the first time in a building with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who represents Moscow at the world’s largest diplomatic meeting. A confrontation between the two could take place during a Security Council meeting.

Many rulers, especially from Africa, Latin America and Asia, fear that other conflicts, expectations and the climate crisis could be neglected in the shadow of the war in Ukraine. Not only Kiev is dependent on the so-called Global South in its defense against Russia: on the one hand is the West, led by US President Joe Biden, who is also visiting, and on the other hand is China and Russia. also compete for the favor of these states. That is why they seem willing to make concessions, leading observers to talk about a “global turning point.”

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As the ‘star of the show’, Zelensky will speak on the East River on three consecutive days: on Monday at a development summit on the UN Sustainable Development Goals, on Tuesday on the opening day of the general debate and on Wednesday at the Security Council. “I would say that Zelensky’s visit to New York is both an opportunity for Ukraine and a quite risky moment,” explains UN expert Richard Gowan of the Crisis Group think tank.

Zelenskyi could win the goodwill of many government leaders and promote his ideas for a war crimes tribunal or the Ukrainian terms for peace. On the other hand, he currently has to defend his rejection of talks with Moscow. This is the opposite of what most countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America want, Gowan says. If Zelenskyy “shows too intransigence, he could actually turn this opportunity into some kind of diplomatic crisis for Ukraine.”

“The stuff that legendary UN moments are made of”

For Zelenskyi, balance will be particularly important at the much-anticipated Security Council meeting. There he must also address representatives such as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula, who could call in their speeches for steps towards peace talks. As for Lavrov’s expected participation in the meeting of the most powerful UN body, this could lead to a direct meeting between Zelensky and the Russian Foreign Minister.

“The stuff that legendary UN moments are made of,” Gowan calls it. It seems likely that Zelensky and Lavrov will alternate leaving the round table in front of the enormous “Mural of Peace” as the other speaks.

“Quantum Leap” for Humanity’s Goals?

In 2015, the world’s countries agreed on seventeen UN sustainability goals to end hunger and extreme poverty by 2030. But Covid, the war in Ukraine and a debt crisis in poor countries have set the targets extremely back: if things continue as they are, according to the UN, 575 million people will still live in extreme poverty and more than 600 million people will go hungry in 2030. .

“The sustainability goals need a global rescue plan,” demands UN Secretary General António Guterres, who expects a “great leap forward” from a development summit on Monday. Significant steps could become possible, especially by pursuing the powers in the Global South – represented by the G77 group led by Pakistan and Cuba. A statement from all countries on Monday is intended, among other things, to support the “reform of the international financial structure”.

The aim of such a reform would also be to make the World Bank and other institutions work better for developing countries and, for example, provide them with cheaper loans and access to more money. The United Nations has also repeatedly called for a reduction in the interest burden, which is significantly higher for poor countries with the same level of debt.

With his trip to New York for the second year in a row, German Chancellor Scholz shows that the general debate is important to him; his predecessor Angela Merkel (CDU) traveled only sporadically. It is likely that, in addition to speeches at the sustainability summit on Monday and the general debate on Tuesday, the chancellor will also meet Zelensky for a discussion. This is unlikely to be easy because of its demand for Taurus-type cruise missiles, which the federal government is reluctant to acquire.

Together with Zelensky, Scholz will probably be the most important European representative in New York. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will not travel this year. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin traditionally do not attend the general debate anyway.

This means that of the five veto powers in the Security Council, only the US is represented, with Biden at the highest level of leadership. While some UN folks see this as a bad sign for the debate’s profile, Guterres downplays the star’s limited appeal: it’s content that counts – and in general, we’re here at the UN, not on ‘Vanity Fair’, a ‘purse of vanities’. ».