A major drone war is looming in the winter. After floods: there are major concerns about a cholera outbreak in Libya

This week, Ukraine caused a stir with major operations: attacks on the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in violation of international law, may have dealt major blows to Russian forces. In Sevastopol, a submarine and a patrol ship were said to have been at least severely damaged, if not completely destroyed. The information about the extent and severity of the damage differs from both sides.

Another attack probably cost Russia an S-400 anti-aircraft system. Both operations reportedly involved drones.

Russia, for its part, has been attacking Ukraine for months with massive drone strikes. Time and again, so-called kamikaze drones pounce on their targets, explode and cause extensive damage. This week alone there have been dozens of attacks with such drones. According to information from Kiev, 44 kamikaze drones flew into Ukraine’s Danube ports on Wednesday alone. Attacks by unmanned aircraft are part of everyday war.

But that could be just the beginning, as the muddy period known as ‘Rasputitsa’ will soon begin in Ukraine. Especially in the south and east of the country, roads and paths become virtually impassable due to heavy rain. This will also likely have consequences for Ukraine’s current counter-offensive: military expert Christian Mölling told t-online that both sides will likely rely more on drones.

“Each party can closely observe the other”

These systems are already playing a decisive role in the war in Ukraine, says Markus Reisner, Colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces, in an interview with t-online. The drones would not only be used in the air, but also on land and especially on water. Naval drones are believed to have played a role in both the recent attacks on Russian military facilities in Crimea and the attacks on the Kerch Bridge.

But they are also used for observation. “By using these systems, both parties have an almost complete picture of the situation without any delay,” Reisner explains. “This means that each side can keep a close eye on the other and prevent the enemy from gathering larger forces without being recognized,” the military expert said. “That is why the war is currently effectively split into skirmishes between smaller units.”

In early June, Ukraine launched a large-scale counter-offensive to recapture Russian-occupied territories. While advancing against Russian units, Ukrainian forces repeatedly encountered defensive lines lined with tank traps and mines. Only a few villages have been reclaimed so far. But in recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up its attacks – and achieved successes, especially on the southern front, including the capture of Robotynje in the southern Zaporizhia region.

This is how Ukraine uses its drones

But how important are drones in war? “Drones are used in Ukraine at the tactical level, mainly for reconnaissance,” the colonel explains. At the operational level they would be used to combat anti-aircraft positions deep behind the front “and also at the strategic level to attack the enemy’s lifelines.” Russia is doing exactly this with its attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, Reisner says.

Huge amounts of unmanned vehicles are being used. “Ukraine alone loses about 10,000 drones every month, most of them reconnaissance drones,” Reisner explains. And both sides have begun to vastly expand their capabilities in this area in recent months. Small, commercially available drones are increasingly being mass-produced to convert them into weapons systems for war.

Ukraine is currently working on improved drones that can carry up to three kilograms of explosives, the Defense Express portal reports. The model, known as the “KH-10,” is designed to fly directly at your target or drop the explosive charge on it.

Since the beginning of this year alone, Ukraine is estimated to have shot down more than 2,000 Iranian Shahed Kamikaze drones, Reisner said. “And Russia now wants to produce 6,000 of these types of drones per year in a war factory.” Lately, Ukraine has often shot down kamikaze drones carrying Russian components – a clear indication that Russia has already started producing Iranian-made drones. Among them was a Russian GPS system called “Kometa,” which was particularly difficult to combat with jammers, Colonel Reisner said.

Research by Spiegel in collaboration with the British organization Conflict Armament Research (CAR) showed in mid-August that Russia had started producing drones based on the Iranian model. In addition to the GPS system, other components from Russia were also identified. Iran has until recently refused to supply Russia with the Shahed Kamikaze drones. Russia officially calls the drones “Geran-2”.

More drone attacks are expected in the mud season

It is clear: Russia and Ukraine are increasing their drone capabilities. This increases the chance that this technology will play an even more central role in the coming war months. According to US Chief of Staff Mark Milley, the muddy period will begin in 30 to 45 days and severely limit the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

“We know that heavy equipment and wheeled vehicles will no longer be usable,” Reisner explains. “That does not mean that the attacks come to a complete standstill, but you are forced to operate with small squads and the weather conditions are becoming increasingly difficult.”

“The drones will then play an even greater role,” says the military expert. You can already see this: “Every time the conflict moves from mobile warfare to stationary warfare, whole swarms of drones immediately start taking off and people start scouting and shooting each other,” says Reisner, who is assessing the situation. front describes. You will experience this again, especially in winter. “The fact is: the war is not over yet, it will continue to intensify.”

Drone attacks would also increase at all levels. But is Ukraine prepared for another winter of massive attacks on its critical infrastructure?

Reisner does not assume that. Because Russia also uses its drones to ‘over-saturate’ Ukrainian air defenses, says Austrian army colonel. “First, drones are sent, which must be disabled by the air defense system. Then cruise missiles are used,” Reisner explains the actions of the Russians.

Ukraine therefore needs “equal support from its allies and in such a qualitative and quantitative way that it is able to withstand the continuous attacks from the Russian side,” the military expert said. However, no one can estimate how long this will continue.

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