class=”sc-29f61514-0 icZBHN”>
The Ukrainian army has done it: the first anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth were conquered last week. The Russians’ first line of defence, the Surovikin Line, has thus been breached – and the most difficult part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been completed. “I think we are at the defining moment of the offensive,” military expert Brynn Tannehill wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.
Now Ukrainian troops are just a few miles from the last Russian fortified defense line, near the small town of Romanivske in Zaporizhia Oblast. This is evident from data from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Tuesday. So, after three months, the Ukrainians are on the verge of a major breakthrough.
“Clear way” for Ukrainian counter-offensive
Because after that it means for the Ukrainian military: clear course. And in all directions. Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavsky told Britain’s The Guardian on Sunday: “Russia has made the greatest effort to build up the first line, and less and less from there.” All defense lines that follow after Romaniwske are partially empty and therefore easier to break through. Because the Kremlin did not expect the Ukrainian forces to make a breakthrough at Robotyne.
For Tannehill it is clear: “Once Ukraine has reached this point, it will hardly matter where they want to strike next.” According to her, the Ukrainians mainly want to break the Russian supply and communication lines between Rostov, Kherson, Zaporizhia and Crimea. “Then the Ukrainian army will have more options to advance south and attack where Russia is weakest.”
Russia is accordingly nervous – and last week the 76th Guards Air Assault Division withdrew from the eastern front around Klishivka to reinforce the area around Robotyne and Verbove. The 76th Brigade is among the best troops they have. They are also feared: the unit was involved in the Butscha massacres and also fought for months over Bakhmut. That Russia is deploying one of the few remaining units capable of real counter-attacks says a lot.
These two factors make success difficult
Yet the Ukrainians seem unstoppable. But only almost. Two circumstances can throw a spanner in the works for the Ukrainian units at the front: Russian mines and the weather.
Over the past week, according to the American magazine Forbes, the Russians quadrupled the depth of their defensive minefields from 120 to 500 meters, and also increased the mine density within the vast fields, noting how fast the Ukrainians were advancing. The Ukrainians will thus encounter minefields along several axes that will be even more difficult to clear than the minefields they have overcome so far. And that could slow her down. In addition, early autumn in Ukraine is very humid, it often rains. This softens the ground, making armored vehicles and heavy artillery more difficult to maneuver.
Yet military expert Tannehill knows for sure in her tweet: “Successfully completing the counter-offensive is difficult, but no longer impossible.”
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
