A large majority of Americans do not want the November 2024 duel between Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be repeated. They reject both candidates. Nevertheless, everything currently indicates that this repetition of the two oldies will take place. Trump is leading in the polls ahead of the Republican primary. So far, Biden has had no serious competition in his own party.
Does this inevitably lead to a sequel to a film no one wants to see?
No, because even if the candidates are the same, the elections will take place under completely different circumstances. An important factor in this is the fact that the composition of the electorate will have changed considerably. That’s according to Celinda Lake and Mac Heller in the Washington Post.
Generation Z changes everything
In 2016, Trump won against Hillary Clinton partly because he had a majority of older voters on his side. By 2024, however, about 20 million of these voters will already be dead, because about two and a half million people die in the US every year. Every year, about four million people reach the age of 18 and are thus entitled to vote. That means the electorate has changed by 52 million votes by age, or one-fifth of the 258 million Americans eligible to vote.
On the surface, this demographic shift seems like a huge benefit to Biden and the Democrats. Generation Z is significantly better educated than their fathers and grandmothers, and the majority of the highly educated vote Democratic. In addition, for this segment of voters, the political content is more important than the people. Here too, Democrats are leading the way: abortion, global warming and stricter gun laws are major concerns for young people.
In contrast, the culture war over the alleged waking-crazy lures none of the young voters from behind the stove. And speaking of teasing people behind the stove: Generation Z goes to the polls much more often than the baby boomers did back then.
Can Biden and the Democrats sit back and speculate how big their lead will be in 2024? Not quite. Generation Z hardly ever watches TV and certainly does not read newspapers. She does her research on social media, and the Republicans have the advantage there.
The far greater danger to the Democrats, however, comes from a third party, from a group calling themselves “No Labels.” That means a group led by former Senator Joe Lieberman, who is currently clarifying whether to run two independent candidates against Trump and Biden. In conversation is the duo of Joe Manchin (Democrat) and Jon Huntsman (Republican).
No Labels wants to exploit the general frustration about a Trump-Biden rerun and counts on a real chance of an election victory for an independent candidate duo. With the rebellious Manchin and the moderate Huntsman, they hope to win over the voters in the center. They also have the resources to fund an election campaign. The group has already raised about $70 million in donations.
At first glance, this plan seems to be working. In any case, the Democrats are already getting nervous. William Galston, a former Democratic election strategist, told the Wall Street Journal that an independent candidate would help Trump gain a slim margin. In addition, the Democrats have painful experiences from the past. Green candidate Jill Stein probably ruined Hillary Clinton, Ralph Nader definitely ruined Al Gore in 2000.
Karl Rove, former chief strategist of George W. Bush, shares Galston’s view. Also in the Wall Street Journal, he states, “There’s no question that a three-way battle with Mr. Manchin would add to Team Biden’s problems with key voters, starting with the disappointed voters.”
But here too, what seems obvious at first glance, need not be so at second glance. In the Washington Post, Aaron Blake comes to the opposite conclusion. Trump would be the loser in a three-way battle, he notes, offering a plausible explanation: Since his role in the fight for the Green New Deal, most Democrats no longer like the stubborn Manchin. Most Republicans, on the other hand, like him for that very reason. Therefore, potential Trump voters in particular will migrate to Manchin.
Blake has more to support his thesis than just his gut. A Monmouth University poll found that significantly more Republicans than Democrats would choose a Manchin/Huntsman duo.
Another tease for Team Biden is Robert F. Kennedy. The son of the slain former justice minister has made a name for himself as the most prominent opponent of vaccination and has been something of a hero on the gay scene since the pandemic.
He wants to run against Biden in the primary and initially had surprisingly good poll numbers. The Republicans and the conservative media gratefully received the ball. Kennedy has been a regular on Fox News since announcing his candidacy.
In the meantime, however, his star seems to be waning. With stupid anti-Semitic comparisons he has maneuvered himself to the sidelines.
Everything currently points to a repeat of the duel between Trump and Biden. But 16 months is almost a century in politics. A lot can still change, Trump has legal problems, Biden has health problems. In addition, an economic crisis or even a war can reshuffle the cards. But one thing is certain: the next election will be of paramount importance to American democracy and the liberal West – and it will take place in completely different circumstances.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
