What strategy could be behind the canceled Grain Agreement What strategy could be behind the canceled Grain Agreement

Despite the war, Ukraine has been able to export nearly 33 million tons of grain across the Black Sea in the past twelve months. Now Russia has put a stop to that. The Kremlin canceled the grain deal with Turkey, the United Nations (UN) and Ukraine – and supported its position with threats and bombings.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that it would classify ships that continue to sail to Ukraine as possible military targets. According to information from the US, Russia is mining access points to Ukrainian ports. For the fourth night in a row, Russia also bombs the important port cities of Odessa and Mykolaiv. The Kremlin spoke of “retaliatory actions”. However, the experts of the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) see a much more extensive strategy from Russia, with the aim of putting pressure on the West.

According to the ISW experts, the attacks on Ukraine’s port and grain infrastructure could be due to Russia seeking to gain more benefits for itself from renegotiating the grain deal. Specifically, it could be grain from occupied Ukrainian territories. The export of this grain could disproportionately benefit the Russian economy.

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyj said the same thing. For example, the port of Chornomorsk near Odessa was so badly damaged that it would take a year to rebuild it. And the capacities of the other ports in the Odessa and Mykolaiv regions are also limited after the attacks. Even if there was a new grain deal, Ukraine would only be able to export to a limited extent, while Russia could ship its own grain or that from the occupied territories to fulfill the deal.

Time is on Russia’s side, grain deliveries are an urgent problem. The United Nations warned on Friday afternoon that famines could worsen worldwide if grain was not exported across the Black Sea. UN Hot Aid Coordinator Martin Griffith said: For the 362 million people in 69 countries who depend on food aid, the cancellation of the agreement “is a threat to their future and the future of their children and their families”. He emphasized, “Some will starve, others will starve.” Read more about the consequences for the world, Europe and Germany here.

Discontinuing the agreement also poses a difficult challenge for the European Union. Apparently there are currently plans to bring more grain overland from Ukraine to the EU and ship it from there. But these deliveries have already led to disputes in the past.

In June 2022, the EU suspended customs duties and export quotas for Ukrainian deliveries. In addition, a lot of Ukrainian grain was left in neighboring countries instead of being shipped – because the necessary infrastructure is missing. To protect their agricultural sectors from much cheaper Ukrainian food, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary banned imports in April. Ukraine assessed this as an “unfriendly and populist move”. Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus has now announced that Poland is ready to facilitate the transit of Ukrainian grain through Poland, but the EU must help create the necessary infrastructure.

“Russia is also likely trying to deepen the rift between the Ukrainian and Central European governments, while Ukraine and the West look for a way to redirect grain exports,” the ISW experts said.

The first effects of Russian behavior are already visible. While it is unclear whether Russia would actually attack grain ships, the number of such ships in the Black Sea has already fallen by 35 percent.

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