Things look even bleaker for British Conservatives. Macron sees risk of split after turmoil

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was spared total disgrace. He was predicted a triple defeat in the House of Commons by-election on Thursday. The last time Harold Wilson’s Labor government suffered such a setback was in 1968. The following year it promptly lost the general election to the Conservatives.

A similar scenario also threatens Sunak, although the Tories managed to retain one of their three previous seats on Thursday. It mainly concerns the former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s previous mandate in the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, a tendentially conservative district on the west side of the otherwise left-wing capital London.

Now the conservatives could hold on to him, albeit barely. Rishi Sunak shouldn’t be too proud of this success. In the election campaign, his party had focused entirely on a local issue, the extension of the controversial environmental zone to the edge of the metropolis, at the behest of London’s Labor mayor Sadiq Khan.

“Deep in the Mess”

This applies from August and means that combustion vehicles with high pollutant emissions are only allowed to drive in the zone against payment. It is very unpopular with the affected population, not least because of the exploding cost of living due to high inflation and the rise in mortgage rates.

However, the Tories could only defend the constituency by a margin of 500 votes. And local issues don’t win national elections. Uxbridge’s success won’t help the Conservatives, noted political scientist and “poll guru” John Curtice told the BBC on Friday: “You’re still deep in the election mess.”

Total change in Yorkshire

Thursday’s other midterm elections are “a better indicator” of the mood in the country, Curtice said. And they paint a devastating picture for Sunak’s company. They lost the constituency of Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire. The previous MP had resigned after being denied “promotion” to the upper house.

Until now the constituency has been regarded as an absolute Tory bastion. In the 2019 election they received more than 60 per cent of the vote and Labor less than 25. Now it is a total turnaround. Labor candidate Keir Mather won with 46 percent, while the Conservatives’ share almost halved. The only 25-year-old Mather is regarded as a great political talent.

Battery factory is useless

The Liberal Democrats won in the constituency of Somerton and Frome in western England, whose former Conservative representative in Westminster resigned over cocaine use and sexual harassment allegations. They have more than doubled their result compared to 2019, while that of the Conservatives has more than halved.

This defeat should make the Conservatives think. Because a day before the mid-term elections, the Indian Tata group, owner of the British car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover, announced that it will build its giant factory for batteries for electric cars in the neighboring town of Bridgwater. About 4,000 jobs would be created.

Higher inflation than others

Spain was discussed as a location, but now the factory is being built in England. Prime Minister Sunak spoke of a “massive vote of confidence” in the country. However, according to the Financial Times, his government will subsidize the factory with £500 million. And according to experts, the British car industry has not been “saved”.

From next year, “penal duties” threaten exports to the European Union. It is a consequence of the Brexit that the British economy has to deal with. It is already suffering from the departure of the European market. Inflation also remains high in the UK, although it fell to 7.9 percent in June.

“Trick” on mortgages

That is still higher than in the US and most European countries, and core inflation, excluding volatile food or energy prices, remains high at 6.9 percent. “The kingdom is likely to have higher inflation than others for some time to come,” economist Paul Dales told CNN.

Because the key interest rate of the Bank of England is currently 5 percent higher than elsewhere. This has consequences for homeowners, because it increases mortgage interest. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that this will see more than a million UK households lose their savings by the end of the year.

Expensive climate protection is not popular

In June, the government agreed a kind of “truce” with the country’s largest building societies. It includes, among other things, a 12-month exemption for forced evictions. For critics, however, the problem is only postponed. The crisis could come to a head again as the next general election approaches.

This must take place by the end of February 2025 at the latest. Labor has been leading in the polls for months by about 20 percentage points. A trend reversal for the Tories is not in sight. Yet Thursday’s result and especially the defeat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip also serve as a warning for Labor leader Keir Starmer.

If climate protection costs anything, it becomes inconvenient. This shows the no of the Swiss voters to the CO₂law or the collapse of the Greens in Germany because of Robert Habeck’s heating law. After an election victory, Starmer therefore wants to curb spending on climate protection. This angers climate activists, who recently disrupted a speech by Keir Starmer.