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When the war began, millions of tons of grain were blocked in Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. In an agreement, the two fronts agreed not to attack grain ships.
The agreement expired at midnight (23:00 Swiss time) on Monday. Putin refuses to extend it, the Kremlin announced at noon. However, Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan (69) is optimistic that he can change Putin’s mind in the coming days.
Blick tells you what you need to know about the agreement and the consequences of termination.
Why do you need the Grain Agreement?
On July 22, 2022, Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the UN and Turkey, signed an agreement to ensure the safe passage of grain ships from three Black Sea ports of Ukraine through the Bosphorus. Inspections must also ensure that the food ships are not loaded with weapons.
What has the agreement achieved?
The deal allowed Ukraine to export 33 million tons of grain, causing the price of food to plummet. Ukrainian grain feeds about 400 million people. Poor countries in particular need it badly.
Why didn’t Putin renew the deal?
The Kremlin is calling for sanctions to be eased, especially those against the state agricultural bank, which is no longer able to do business. The EU proposed the creation of a subsidiary of the Agrarian Bank in what Moscow called a “deliberately unworkable plan”.
What are alternative transport routes?
Until the start of the war, more than 90 percent of Ukrainian exports passed through the Black Sea ports. Saskia Kobelt (33), Emergency Programs Manager for Unicef Switzerland and Liechtenstein: “Now the Ukrainian Grains Association wants to send more grain via the Danube to the Black Sea ports of neighboring Romania and thinks it can limit monthly exports on this route to four million tons double.”
Grain can also be transported by rail through Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The problem: the freight trains are too small for the amounts of grain and run on different gauges. In addition, transit through eastern EU countries leads to resentment among farmers there for competitive reasons.
Are millions of tons of grain now rotting away?
According to Kobelt, it’s less about the rotting of the grain and more about the fact that it could end up in the wrong market. It may happen that Ukraine’s grain finds its market in Europe, but grain from other Eastern European countries competes. Kobelt: “This could even lead to a grain surplus, as production in the eastern EU countries is currently at a very high level.”
How much grain does Ukraine produce?
According to the Ukraine Grain Association, grain and oilseed production before the Russian invasion was about 106 million tons. Last year, the harvest collapsed to 67 million tons. For the current year, the association expects a further decrease to 50 million tonnes.
Without a deal, will Putin fire on grain ships?
How Putin will proceed is uncertain. It is conceivable that he extorts a ransom or some other advantage for each ship. The fact that there are no contracts is likely to lead to enormously higher insurance costs for the ships. Without Russian approval, shipping companies could therefore hesitate to send out their ships.
What is the impact on the world?
Food prices are likely to rise again. All countries of the Global South have been affected. UNICEF Switzerland expects an increase in famines and further destabilization of vulnerable regions already suffering from conflicts, economic crises and droughts.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
