So far there has been no breakthrough. The front lines in the war in Ukraine are barely shifting at the moment, but fighting is still fierce and there are many casualties on both sides. So far, the Ukrainian army has not been able to make any major territorial gains in its counter-offensive. But at least Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy returned from the NATO summit in Lithuania with some hope in his luggage.
Ukraine is getting Scalp missiles from France, giving it another weapon system to attack Russian positions far behind the front lines. In an interview, military and Russia expert Gustav Gressel explains why these attacks can become painful for Russia and why Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin still sticks to his war goals.
t-online: Mr. Gressel, at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Ukraine, further arms packages were promised. A success for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
Gustav Gressel: At least it hasn’t gotten any worse.
That doesn’t sound like satisfaction.
Ukraine has been promised further military support, but the NATO summit was more like a Ramstein meeting at the level of Ukraine’s heads of government. (Editor’s note: The West and Ukraine have regularly discussed military aid at meetings at the US Air Force Base in Ramstein since the war began.) Besides, we’re just as smart after the summit as we were before.
But aren’t more arms shipments exactly what Ukraine needs right now as part of its counter-offensive?
Yes, but the announced support consisted of commitments that were already long in the pipeline and would come anyway. But of course: right now the military situation in Ukraine and continued support are crucial. And Zelenskyj at least had the chance to personally speak with US President Joe Biden in Lithuania
After all, the US and the G7 have outlined security guarantees for Ukraine – regardless of NATO membership. Isn’t that worth a lot?
That remains to be seen. The G7 countries want to negotiate bilaterally with Ukraine on the military support that the Ukrainian army will need in the near future and after the war. However, this is all very vaguely worded. In short, the question of how to proceed after the war was postponed. But admittedly, since the war will last even longer, this is not the most pressing problem.
But at least France now supplies Scalp cruise missiles. This was an important step for Ukraine.
This is very important for Ukraine, because these are the only weapon systems that allow Ukraine to reach the full depth of the occupied territory. With these cruise missiles it can target Russian supply lines, command posts or logistics centers, and Russia has difficulty intercepting them. This is currently becoming the downfall of Putin’s army.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is making little progress, which is also due to the strongly staggered defense lines of the Russian army. Are these cruise missiles currently the main weapon system in Ukraine?
Of course, the Ukrainians can make things extremely difficult for the Russians. But one should not underestimate that such a means also heavily depends on the Ukrainian military being able to pinpoint the exact location of targets. Of course they are important and good weapons, but their effective use depends on good reconnaissance
Despite this, Russian military bloggers are sounding the alarm about Ukraine’s effective missile strikes. Russian general Ivan Popov also criticized the military leadership and was immediately fired by the Kremlin. What was the background?
Popov has accused the Russian military leadership of shortcomings in war logistics, in the preparation and training of soldiers. He blames the army command for not taking the war seriously enough and for not being flexible enough. This is reminiscent of the criticism of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin
This criticism comes at a stage of the war where Russian defenses seem to be holding up so far. Where do you see the biggest problems for Putin at the moment?
This week, Ukraine’s territorial gains in the south have been limited. But both sides are suffering heavy losses and the question is whether the Russians or the Ukrainians can better compensate for this wear and tear.
The Ukraine would currently be at a disadvantage because they have to attack. Or?
That is unclear. The Ukrainian army also reports very high losses on the Russian side. This may also be due to Putin’s decisions.
Why this?
The Russian president had apparently ordered his army to resume offensive operations, especially in Donetsk Oblast. However, these attacks were unsuccessful and decimated Russian reserves. And that is also part of Popov’s criticism of the Russian military leadership: Russia is wasting reserves it actually needs to defend its lines in the south.
No effects so far?
We will see in the coming days and weeks whether this retaliates and whether Ukraine can make progress. So far, no breakthrough has come through the Russian lines. We have to wait.
Why does Putin make such decisions? He probably knows that the Russian army needs its reserves for defense.
Putin himself is relatively optimistic about the state of his army. He is probably presented with embellished figures of his own losses and therefore assumes that his army is victorious. While he probably sees the difficulties, he seems to think that the Ukrainian army is on the brink of collapse and has run out of supplies. We can deduce this reading from his public statements.
But that’s a misconception.
Clearly. Of course, the Ukrainian army also has logistical problems with supplies. This is difficult, but not currently dramatic and existentially threatening. But Ukraine, unlike Russia, has been qualitatively upgraded. She was much better at keeping well-trained and experienced soldiers alive and sharpening their tactical skills. Putin, on the other hand, only sees the quantitative balance of power and assumes that this will ultimately make his army victorious. And as I said, I assume the figures presented to the president are embellished.
Thus, Putin’s ignorance could become a strategic advantage for Ukraine.
This could become a strategic advantage if Ukraine is equipped and has sufficient capacity to use this advantage.
Things are not getting any easier for Putin internationally either. Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received Selenskyj in Ankara and released Ukrainian Azov fighters. Did that surprise the Kremlin boss?
That should not surprise Putin.
Why?
Erdoğan has invested a lot of money, time and prestige in negotiating the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine. For the Turkish president, this was a personal diplomatic success. But Putin has announced that he does not want to renew the agreement. With that, he left Erdoğan out in the rain.
So Erdoğan’s move was to be expected?
In any case, it was clear that the Turkish president does not take this lightly. Putin had to take Erdoğan’s retaliation into account, because both gentlemen are very similar.
Most recently, a last-minute agreement was reached on the grain deal. Can’t do that again next week?
Sure, but that alone isn’t the problem. Irrigation systems have collapsed, especially in southern Ukraine, where a lot of grain is produced. As a result, a large part of the summer harvest fails and it is currently unknown how high the grain production will be. That’s a disaster.
What are the consequences if grain deliveries fail?
That would have enormous consequences, including for Germany. Food prices also rise in Germany in the autumn. Last year’s harvest, which was stored in silos, is currently being shipped. But now the question is of course how to proceed and whether the silos can be filled again.
Thanks for the interview, Mr. Gressel.
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I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
