How the different parties benefit from Sweden’s NATO membership The temperature in Spain is said to rise to 44 degrees

The surprising news came from Vilnius on Monday morning: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given up his opposition and has agreed for Sweden to join NATO. This was announced by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a press conference in the Lithuanian capital.

Sweden’s accession to NATO is not yet certain – the Turkish parliament has yet to approve the accession protocol. Moreover, Hungary’s agreement is still missing, although it had announced that it would concede if Turkey did. So it seems only a matter of time before the Scandinavian country is officially admitted. What does this expansion mean for stakeholders? An overview.

The benefits for Sweden

Sweden submitted its application to join NATO in May 2022. Even then, the government made it clear: its focus is on security, which was seen as threatened by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “We find that the Russian crisis is structural, systemic and protracted,” said Foreign Minister Ann Linde, presenting a security analysis of the country.

In the report published at the time, Sweden concluded that joining NATO would “raise the threshold for military conflict”. In particular, reference is made to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. This stipulates that NATO states regard an armed attack against one partner as an attack against all. Consequently, the other countries are obliged to provide aid.

Accession to NATO reduces the risk of an attack on Sweden – including by Russia. The two countries are only separated by Finland, the linear distance between Stockholm and St. Petersburg is only 689 kilometers.

The benefits for Turkey

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long opposed Sweden’s entry into NATO. According to the Turkish ruler, Stockholm is taking insufficient action against “terrorist organisations”, referring mainly to the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party PKK. Also on Monday, Erdogan had stated that he would only agree to Sweden’s NATO membership “when the road from Turkey to the EU is paved”.

So far he has not explained why Erdogan relented just hours after this statement. However, concessions from Sweden were decisive, according to Stoltenberg. The speech includes a new “security pact” between Stockholm and Ankara, which aims to strengthen the fight against terrorism. In addition, Sweden should commit to working in the EU on reviving Turkey’s accession negotiations, modernizing the customs union and visa liberalisation.

Not only Sweden, but also NATO complied with Turkey’s wishes during the negotiations. NATO will appoint a new counter-terrorism commissioner to coordinate the fight against terrorism. And US President Joe Biden wants to promote the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, according to his national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The US government has denied any connection to the lifting of the Swedish blockade in the past, but Biden himself has twice linked the two issues.

Although Erdogan has not yet reached the goal he set for himself – joining the EU – many experts see him as a major beneficiary. Turkey expert Yasar Aydin told the Spiegel that Monday afternoon’s question could have served to push the price for a concession as high as possible.

The benefits for NATO

The fact that the agreement was reached before the actual start of the NATO summit eases the situation somewhat. In the following days, the states can devote themselves to the actual topic – how to deal with Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Erdogan’s approval is also symbolically important: NATO shows unity, differences can be clarified.

Sweden’s accession to NATO is also significant from a military point of view. Military experts argue that this can play an important role, especially in defense in Northern Europe. If Sweden is part of the alliance, the entire Baltic Sea coast, with the exception of Russian territory, belongs to NATO territory. This would provide better protection for the Baltic states in particular, with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – troops and equipment could be delivered to the three countries much more easily by ship in the future.

The Swedish island of Gotland, which is considered an important base, would also become a new part of NATO. “You could almost say that the Baltic Sea would become a kind of NATO inland sea,” Claudia Major, head of the security policy research group at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, told ARD.

Sweden’s accession to NATO also has a number of advantages in terms of military capability. On the “Power Index”, a ranking of the military strength of all countries, Sweden ranks 37th, putting the Scandinavian country ahead of Switzerland (44th).

Sweden has an army, an air force and a navy with a total of 15,000 soldiers. In addition, there is the Home Guard, the so-called “Hemvärnet”, with another almost 21,000 military personnel and 5,000 temporary servants. Add the reservists to that and that yields about 50,000 soldiers.

The country’s arsenal of weapons is also considered progressive: Sweden has Saab 39 Gripen, i.e. modern multirole combat aircraft that can be used for hunting, attack and reconnaissance, among others. And the country’s artillery has recently been reinforced with mortars worth 47 million euros.