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The Ukrainians are advancing. Having already recaptured the strategically important city of Kherson at the end of 2022, the recently lost city of Bakhmut is likely to fall back into their hands soon in the ongoing counter-offensive.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the armed forces had taken the “strategic initiative” towards Bakhmut, the Washington-based Institute for War Studies (ISW) wrote. There are signs that the army is expanding its offensive. Bakhmut was captured by the Russians in May after months of fighting.
At the same time, the Ukrainians set their sights on a new target. The Ukrainian military said the occupied port city of Berdyansk in southern Ukraine was shelled on Thursday, hitting a Russian headquarters and a fuel depot. The Ukrainians used British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have a range of more than 200 kilometers.
Betting in the Russians
The city on the Sea of Azov, which had a population of 115,000 before the war, is one of the announced spearheads of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Marcel Berni, 35, military strategist at ETH, says: “A wedge into Berdyansk would break the Russian land bridge between Crimea and Donbass. This would give Ukraine two shared fronts that it could roll up and then surprisingly push the Russian defenders into the back could stab.”
Moreover, Ukraine hopes that Berdyansk can be reached from both southern attack axes, i.e. both from Orikhiv and from Velyka Novosilka. An operational encirclement of the city is another scenario. “But that’s still a long way off,” says Berni.
look for vulnerabilities
At the moment, the Ukrainians maintain three axes of attack: Orikhiv – Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka – Mariupol and flanking attacks at Bakhmut. According to Berni, the counter-offensive has only started to a limited extent so far. Berni: “If there was a breakthrough on an axis, it would probably be pushed further at this point.”
Because Ukraine’s primary goal is to break into the Russian front lines. “Where this intrusion takes place is less important. It would be much more important that it can be expanded in a second step, so that more territory can be attacked and the Russians face defensive dilemmas,” says Berni.
ATACMS coming soon?
The United States is currently considering supplying cluster munitions and ATACMS short-range ballistic missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. Until now, the Americans had always refused to supply these weapons because they could be used to attack the Russian interior.
If that were to happen, Russian logistics would have to reorganize again – similar to what happened after the delivery of Himars last summer. Berni: “Since ATACMS can be shot down by the Himars launchers, Ukraine would likely use them to further further the logistical strangulation of Russian troops.”
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
