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Three days have passed since Prigozhin’s mutiny. Do you now know why the Wagner boss returned 200 kilometers from Moscow?
Prigozhin has said he was not working to overthrow Vladimir Putin. That is plausible. Prigozhin’s goal was to force Putin to adopt a tougher military line in Ukraine. Prigozhin wanted Putin to declare a general mobilization. When Prigozhin understood that Putin called him a traitor and thus declared an outlaw, he seized the opportunity to move to Belarus.

Has Prigozhin moved one step closer to the goal of general mobilization with his action?
No, a general mobilization is still very unlikely.

Why?
Putin has said from the beginning that the special military operation in Ukraine will not affect his own people. With a general mobilization he would break this promise.

So Prigozhin gambled away.
Yes. It’s amazing that he decided to take this action. In his own right, he is a clever, calculating power man. In fact, he should have known that a march on Moscow would not be successful.

Prigozhin now goes into exile in Belarus. Is he safe there?
There is a possibility that the Russian secret service will attack Prigozhin. There could be two reasons for this. First, as revenge for the betrayal. Second, Putin cannot be sure that Prigozhin is not planning another uprising.

Has Putin been weakened by the uprising?
The uprising produced two losers. On the one hand Prigozhin, on the other Putin. Putin has lost a lot of authority. It is now clear that he is no longer even in control of his own military units. That Alexander Lukashenko has gained prestige throughout the affair is another bitter pill for Putin. Until recently, Lukashenko was completely dependent on Putin, as he had been seriously weakened since the rigged Belarusian presidential election of 2020. Lukashenko has now skilfully explored his leeway and acts as a mediator between two conflicting parties. He is the laughing third party in this dispute.

Preparations to protect Moscow looked pretty bad. Excavators dug holes in the road and buses were blocked. Is that all Putin has left?
Putin had to be careful that Prigozhin’s mutiny did not escalate into open hostilities on Russian soil. Therefore, he had little choice but to stop the march on Moscow with obstacles.

But would Putin have more to offer in terms of personal protection?
Yes, for example, there is the National Guard that has so far protected individual ministries and individual republics. The most loyal army unit reporting to Putin is the so-called FSO. This is a gigantic bloated bodyguard force of over 40,000 men. It can be assumed that Putin’s personal security is well organized.

What did the uprising do to the Russian population?
The population is very concerned. The story of a military special operation that has no impact on the population collapses. Suddenly there are barricades and a heightened terror alert in Moscow. War is now coming to big Russian cities like Rostov and Voronezh. Putin used to be seen as the guarantor of stability and security, but that is no longer the case.

Is this interesting for someone who lives in Vladivostok?
Vladivostok also has other reservations about the central government. There were protests in the Far East even before the war, when the popular governor Sergei Furgal was arrested for alleged corruption. In Russia the rule applies: the further one lives from Moscow, the more skeptical one is of the center of power. The uprising in Prigozhin may have further weakened confidence in the government.

Who will stay with Putin?
Until recently, Putin could count on a broad, depoliticized majority. About 15 percent of Russians are pro-war, 15 percent are radically anti-war. In between is a large majority that is apathetic to political events. These are not strong supporters of Putin, these are people who want political and economic stability. Once the silent majority begins to question Putin’s system, the Kremlin could be in trouble.

Putin also received support from Chechen fighters led by leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who came to his aid on Saturday.
Kadyrov said relatively quickly that he would help Putin. This became fatal to Prigozhin. Between the Wagner troops and the Chechens we see another intra-Russian conflict. You should know that Kadyrov has a deal with Putin.

What does this deal look like?
From Moscow’s point of view, Chechnya is considered a problematic area, where there were two wars in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Kadyrov comes from a separatist family, but made a deal with Putin when he came to power. Kadyrov ensures peace in Chechnya and ensures that the region does not break away from the Russian Federation. Conversely, Putin is letting Kadyrov do as he pleases and is channeling significant financial resources from Moscow to Chechnya.

How long will Kadyrov stand by Putin?
Kadyrov will stand by Putin as long as he sees him as the guarantor of his own power. As soon as that is no longer the case, Kadyrov will look for other options.

The Wagner fighters now have the opportunity to join the Russian army. Will the integration succeed?
After Prigozhin’s rebellion, fault lines emerged within the Wagner group. There are the ultra-nationalist fanatics who are disappointed that Prigozhin gave up. What they do is unclear. Then there are certainly people who join the Russian army. However, this is much less prestigious because the Wagner fighters consider themselves an elite unit. And some loyal followers will follow Prigozhin to Belarus.

To outsiders, the Kremlin is always a kind of black box. Are there people waiting to take Putin’s place, or are they behind him?
The most important career criterion so far has been absolute loyalty to Putin. All people in formal and informal positions of power had to pass this loyalty test. The best example is Governor Alexei Dyumin. Formerly Putin’s bodyguard, he is now considered a possible candidate for the position of defense minister. This case shows what the important starting criteria are for a political and administrative career in Putin’s Russia. But the people in the Kremlin don’t have to agree on everything, there are different lobby groups.

What are these groups?
For example, there is the so-called “War Party”, which consists mainly of members of the Security Council. These are the people who have pushed for war in Ukraine and want to restore Russia to imperial greatness. On the other hand, there is the group of «liberal insiders».

What do these people stand for?
These are technocrats who are also loyal to Putin and have made a career in his system. These people want Russia to be modernized technologically and economically. They are pushing for an end to the war. Putin is in an impossible situation. One side is calling for a harder pace of war, while the other side wants hostilities to be stepped up.

Are we witnessing the beginning of Putin’s end?
I suspect that both Putin and the various influential groups in the Kremlin see more and more clearly that the situation is mortally ill. With Putin as president, there is no way out of this situation. A repeat of the 1999 scenario is conceivable.

What happened then?
The then president Boris Yeltsin was very weak and resigned at the end of 1999. Shortly before, he appointed the then unknown KGB boss Vladimir Putin as prime minister. After Yeltsin’s resignation, Putin automatically became interim president and gained fame through television appearances. At the end of March 2000, he was elected president.

Presidential elections will be held in Russia in March 2024. So you think it is possible that Putin will step down in a few months and that the prime minister will be his successor?
Yes. The current Prime Minister is Mikhail Mishustin. He belongs to the liberal technocrats, but is completely loyal to Putin’s system. A change of prime minister in the coming months is also conceivable. Behind the scenes, the individual power groups will now regroup and work to stabilize Russia.