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Will civil war break out in Russia now? The whole world asked that question when Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (62) marched troops towards Moscow on Saturday. But after only a few hours, Prigozhin broke off the advance again. The Wagner boss would now live in exile in Belarus. But why did Prigozhin go to Moscow in the first place? And what was agreed?
Russia expert Tatiana Stanovaya of the Berlin think tank “Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center” assesses the events of the weekend. She wrote on Twitter: “Prigozhin’s rebellion was not a quest for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin – it was an act of desperation.” Because the Wagner boss repeatedly complained about a lack of ammunition and did not see his troops in combat condition.
He wanted to generate attention with the advance, says Stanovaya. In addition, he probably wanted to spark discussions about the future of his troops. Discussions that should include financing and security. “It was a desperate attempt to save the company,” Stanovaya said.
Putin’s speech overwhelmed the Wagner boss
But Putin didn’t play along – and gave a speech describing the Wagner mercenaries as traitors, whom he would punish. Stanovaya believes that this speech overwhelmed the Wagner boss: “He was not ready to take on the role of a revolutionary.”
Prigozhin was also unwilling to actually make it to Moscow: “The only option left to him was to take the Kremlin – an action that would inevitably lead to his and his fighters’ downfall,” the expert suspects.
Stanovaya also believes that Russian elites have contacted Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This further enhanced his “sense of foreboding”. So Prigozhin wanted only one thing – to find a way out.
Putin needs neither Wagner nor Prigozhin
What exactly was discussed in the negotiations, which probably involved Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (62), is unclear. But Prigozhin probably had no choice but to capitulate. “The situation would have been much worse if there had been a bloody chaos on the outskirts of Moscow,” Stanovaya said.
The expert suspects that there have been discussions about dissolving the Wagner group. She also writes: “Putin may have promised him security on the condition that he remain tacitly in Belarus.” His merits in Bachmut are said to have saved his life.
The abrupt end of the advance is not surprising to the Russia connoisseur. For them, Prigozhin’s plan was doomed from the start: “I don’t think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands. Putin needs neither Wagner nor Prigozhin. convinced.” (Mrs)
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
