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It was not pictures of the front that went around the world from Ukraine in recent days. They were images of the worst humanitarian crisis since the beginning of the war: bodies of water crashing through the broken dam of the Kachowka Reservoir, flooding large areas and almost completely engulfing thousands of homes. But in addition to the human suffering, the deaths and the enormous economic and environmental damage, the dam failure also has a tangible military component – especially against the background of the major Ukrainian offensive that is now likely to have started.
Ukraine and the West accuse Russia of causing the dam to collapse. Moscow denies this, blaming Ukrainian missiles for the destruction of the dam. Both sides cite military reasons for their blame game. The floods are indeed reshuffling the cards on the battlefield.
Pros and cons on both sides
The new location has advantages and disadvantages for both Moscow and Kiev. For now, the flooded part of the front appears to be sidelined as a target for the Ukrainians. The water masses make it impossible for larger forces to advance. At the same time, the Ukrainian army continues to rescue and care for flood victims. Thousands of people were brought to safety.
The flooding will also raise the water level of tributaries in the lower reaches of the Dnipro, which may lead to logistical problems in the hinterland. Under these circumstances, a Ukrainian offensive in the region is unthinkable.
Marshy ground makes progress impossible
However, the flooding also has long-term effects on possible hostilities in the region. Even after the bodies of water recede, some experts say the ground will remain waterlogged for weeks, if not months. Rapid progress is therefore practically impossible. Heavy equipment is in danger of collapsing. This is a disadvantage for the Ukrainians, who have relied on fast and agile units in previous offensives.
Deputy Defense Minister Hannah Maljar accused Russia on Sunday of blowing up the dam to prevent an offensive by the Ukrainians in the Kherson region in order to free up reserves that could be transferred to other sectors of the front.
The focus shifts to Zaporizhia
With the front part now under water, Kiev loses a credible alternative where it can advance. Recent counter-attacks have focused on their main front in the south of the country, the Zaporizhia region. Important because the Ukrainian troops could advance towards the Black Sea coast in the event of a breakthrough here and thus drive a wedge between the Russian forces stationed there. This would make it difficult to take care of them.
The Zaporizhia region is difficult for attacks. The steppe is very manageable and offers little cover for attackers. From safe cover, main battle tanks and armored vehicles are easy targets for the artillery.
According to US military expert Phillips O’Brien, it could be weeks before the Ukrainians succeed in attacking here. The Russians are aware of the importance of the front in Zaporizhia. “They’ve put up some of the deepest defenses and are using some of their best troops to defend the area,” O’Brien said.
Russian defenses washed out
Kherson, now partially flooded, was seen as a way to force the Russian army to defend other sectors of the front, thus overstretching Moscow’s units. By creating a bridgehead on the left side of the Dnipro – formerly occupied by Russia – the Ukrainians could have put the Russians in a dangerous position.
Ben Hodges, retired lieutenant general and former commander in chief of US forces in Europe, sees the Russian advantage as short-lived. According to him, the high temperatures in the summer will cause the soil to dry out quickly.
On the other hand, the water masses have washed away Russian defenses, possibly destroying ammunition and fuel depots, so that the logistics have to be rebuilt here. The strategically important Kinburn Peninsula in the Dnipro Delta off the Black Sea exit, currently controlled by Moscow forces, has been cut off from the hinterland by the flood and could become the target of Ukrainian attacks.
Reclaim the Kinburn Peninsula?
With the peninsula stretching far west, Russia not only controls the Dnipro, but extends its influence well into the western Black Sea. The seaport of Mykolayiv, which is one of the most important ports along with Odessa, is practically cut off from world trade due to Russian control of the Kinburn Peninsula. For Kiev, retaking the tip of the country would be very important, especially since it would also bring the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea within reach.
In addition, the water level in the Kachowka reservoir drops dramatically, as huge bodies of water flow towards the Black Sea. This means that in the future crossing the Dnipro will also be an option at other points that previously had no chance of success due to the width of the reservoir. Russia is thus forced to guard these front sections as well – thus dispersing the armed forces. (SDA)
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
