The Ukrainian offensive is rolling – everything you want to know in 4 points This 26-year-old wants to make the largest island in the world independent

Where is the offensive taking place?

At the moment, the offensive is not concentrated in one place, but in several scattered locations. British intelligence indicated on Monday that fighting is still going on in various sectors of the front.

Most of the attacks are concentrated in the area south of the city of Zaporizhia. This was confirmed to the BBC on Saturday by Serhiy Kusan, co-founder and chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre. However, he did not name any specific cities or towns that were fought over:

In its Sunday analysis, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also said several settlements and villages had been recaptured by Ukrainian forces in the past 48 hours. In addition, the Ukrainian army has made progress in the area around Bakhmut.

The neighboring villages of Makariwka and Storoschewe, as well as the settlements of Robotyne and Lobowke, are explicitly identified as territorial gains.

Is the offensive successful?

The fighting does not resemble an offensive. By comparison, a major by-the-book attack: U.S. General Patton’s “Operation Cobra” during World War II seems much more centered, much more coordinated; all at once. A French military source told Le Monde that the offensive did not take place in the traditional sense: “You cannot compare it with other offensives; it is gradual”.

However, that’s because you’re still in a “combat reconnaissance phase,” Kusa told the BBC. This means that the Ukrainian forces are conducting smaller attacks in multiple locations to reconnoitre the enemy’s defenses and then develop an optimal strategy. According to Kusa, this strategy is working well in some places with few casualties, while the Russians are fighting back elsewhere.

A village here, a village there. In fact, the land gains, albeit small, speak for a successful campaign so far. Since the beginning of this month, however, more and more images and video material have appeared on the internet (and especially Russian Telegram channels) showing destroyed Ukrainian war material.

Burnt-out armored vehicles can be seen in this still image, which has not yet been independently verified. Apparently these are US Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (small, green decals, slanted front) and a Leopard 2A6 main battle tank (bottom center, long barrel).

In Telegram chats dealing with the conflict, a user asks:

Indeed, the advance of Ukraine is not easy: Russia had enough time to strengthen its defenses while the front was practically frozen all winter. Large swaths of land were cleared, tank barriers were erected and trenches dug. This video shows how well developed and hardened some Russian positions are:

What do the Ukrainians say?

Officially, Ukraine is silent as usual. The major counter-offensive announced some time ago has not yet been publicly announced. The Reuters news agency interviewed Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine. He stated that the “rumours” of an offensive in progress were “nonsense”:

Other official Ukrainian authorities also do not speak of a major counter-attack. Hanna Maylar, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, said only that Russian troops are now “actively defending” around the city of Orikhiv. She also confirmed on Telegram that the town of Velyka Novosilka (5 km north of liberated Makarivka) is currently being fought over.

The BBC, citing “analysts”, suggests these two cities could be the corners of a stretch of front that Ukraine will try to break through.

Meanwhile in Canada, President Zelenskyj announced on Sunday that counter-attacks would take place along the front – but he also left open whether this was a major offensive.

What do the Russians say?

On the Russian side, the Ukrainian offensive has definitely begun. That is what Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in a video interview published on Telegram on Friday. The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, admits that little territory was lost, but declares other Ukrainian attacks as failed.

The ministry announced that eight smaller attacks by Ukrainians in the Avdiivka area had been repelled. In addition, four Leopard tanks have already been destroyed.

The British Defense Ministry reported on Monday that Russian Defense Minister Shoigu has been publishing more and more figures on Ukrainian losses since last week, which are “almost certainly” far too high. He wants to polish his image with the Russian people.