That’s really behind the military pact

Alexander Lukashenko (68), the dictator of Belarus, carried out a careful balancing act during the war in Ukraine. On February 24, Russian troops stormed the border into Ukraine en masse in Belarus – using Lukashenko’s land as a staging area for the largest invasion of Europe since World War II.

After that, it became quiet about the Belarusian ruler and his involvement in the war against Ukraine. Until now. Lukashenko said on Monday that Belarus and Russia will establish a joint military group and that thousands of Russian troops will come to his country for exercises in the coming days.

Lukashenko wants to “deploy the force when the threat level reaches current levels” – and accused Kiev of planning an attack on Belarus, as quoted by the Russian news agency Ria Novosti. For experts, however, a joint troop formation does not necessarily mean a war effort. The main thing is to increase the pressure on Ukraine.

Belarus supplies tons of weapons to Russia

However, should the Belarusian army actually go to war against Ukraine, this will only help the Russians to a limited extent. Because experts estimate the military strength of Lukashenko’s troops as low. For example, political scientist Michael Staack (63) tells Blick: “The Belarusian army has limited combat capacity, it cannot be used for offensive operations. It will not be able to help Russia decisively. At most, it can open a new front for Ukraine.”

And “The Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) also stated in May that direct participation in the war by Belarus was unlikely. Lukashenko did not want to risk “losing his army in a stalled and worsening Russian war in Ukraine”.

As “Bild” now reports, the pact between Vladimir Putin (70) and Lukashenko is based on a completely different idea. It is much more likely that Russia will try to fortify its fronts with Belarusian equipment. This is apparent from the many transports of Belarusian war material to Crimea. In addition, more weapons and ammunition will be brought to Russia.

According to the newspaper, experts such as Nico Lange (47), who heads the management staff of the Federal Ministry of Defense until 2021, fear that Russia wants to use this war material to arm its 300,000 mobilized reservists to stabilize its front – and further into Ukraine if necessary. to push. In plain English, that means: Putin uses the Belarusian army to protect his troops against another defeat.

NATO sees no evidence of Belarus joining war

NATO also sees no indication that Belarus intends to participate actively in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Despite the stationing of troops on the border with Ukraine, it is still believed that the country does not officially want to intervene in the war, a representative of the military alliance said on Wednesday on the sidelines of a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels. He cited the threat of sanctions from the West as a possible reason.

Referring to Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, he said: “I don’t think we should doubt that Lukashenko understands that the full force of the sanctions imposed on Russia will also be used against Belarus if the Belarusian armed forces are the same.” operations against Ukraine.” However, according to the West, Belarus serves Russia as a deployment and withdrawal area.

The NATO representative, who declined to be named, stressed that Belarus was complicit in the fight against Ukraine because it had stationed Russian troops there. Thus, during the war, ground and air attacks could be carried out from Belarusian territory. (chs/SDA)