Acts of sabotage increase: resistance in Russia grows in the form of militia corps What if Biden really can’t take it anymore?

invasion of Russian territory. Russians fight against Russians. Cruise missiles, attack helicopters, missile launchers in Belgorod. It’s fighting again. At the same time, Moscow reports drone strikes. Acts of sabotage are on the rise in Ukraine’s Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia.

Russia has been at war in its neighbor for more than 15 months. This “special operation”, as it is officially called in Russia, is not at all popular. However, so far there has been little effective resistance.

There is now also fighting on Russian soil: 35 kilometers behind the border, in the region around the city of Belgorod, the two partisan groups “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Freedom of Russia” have been on their way again since June 1. Their goal: to “liberate” Moscow and then change the system. Waived President Vladimir Putin.

Is this the resistance the world – especially the Ukrainians – is hoping for? That remains doubtful, agrees Russia expert Alexander Libman. The mood in the country, which is currently attacking its neighbors, is gloomy, says the Freie Universität Berlin political scientist. However, no reliable data could be generated. Russia is an autocracy. An opinion poll showing that the population does not approve of the war would have been a thorn in the side of the Kremlin – and so would never have been published.

But Libman says:

At the same time, the Russians see no way to change the situation and no way out of the situation. According to Libman, such a situation is very unstable and can tip in two directions.

Accordingly, protests, if any, would come primarily from forces demanding a more decisive and aggressive approach.

However, a resolute approach is already visible at the moment – ​​just in the other direction. Fighting in Belgorod, drone strikes in Moscow.

As recently as Thursday, the Russian army said it had been able to repel an attempted “invasion” by Ukrainian units in the Belgorod region. Whether Ukraine is actually involved cannot be independently verified, but the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Legion Free Russia” militias, classified by Russia as terrorist organizations, remain involved in the fighting in the border area. And they want to fight to the end. Her statement is clear: Freedom is bought with blood.

According to British intelligence, Russian commanders now face the acute dilemma of whether to strengthen defenses in Russia’s border regions or strengthen their lines in occupied Ukraine.

The political scientist and military expert Gustav Gressel also estimates the situation in this way. Last Thursday he told ZDF that Putin had to respond. “He can’t bear this.” Therefore, he will have to withdraw soldiers from Ukraine to position them on his own border.

If the Russian ruler fails to control the militias, it could become embarrassing and even dangerous for him. Would success turn this glimmer of hope into a wildfire?

The expert Libman does not believe in that. “Broad resistance to the war is unlikely,” he says. “Russia can effectively suppress the dissidents.” Popular discontent only becomes relevant in autocracies when there is a split in the elites. And that is unlikely, “also because the elites see no way out of the current situation”. Although they were not satisfied with the war, they believed that defeat would only make things worse for them.

In addition, a deadly trend has become apparent in Russia over the past 15 months: critical voices from oligarchic circles have fallen silent. Unexplained deaths increased. Even the elite are apparently intimidated.

But the autocratic chains are not stable everywhere: Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 in violation of international law, is becoming an increasingly annoying appendage. At least it seems that way if you follow the reports about acts of sabotage and attacks.

Because attacks are increasing, the origin of which can probably be found on the peninsula. Explosions that damaged infrastructure have increased in recent weeks. For example, on May 18, a freight train derailed between Simferopol and Sevastopol, the largest city on the Crimean peninsula. The aim, according to the British secret service, is to prevent supplies to the Russian Black Sea fleet stationed in Sevastopol. An increasing loss of control is visible. But Russia expert Libman refuted the statements: “The [Angriffe] but do not appear to be crucial to the Russian war machine.”

Then there are the drones over Moscow.

Where they come from, who sent them – so far it remains a mystery. Ukraine denies involvement. The Kremlin, however, stands by its accusation that Ukraine is a terrorist state targeting Russia.

There are three possibilities where the drones can come from:

The latter possibility was put forward by the military expert Christian Mölling of the German Association for Foreign Relations (DGAP). He told the Berliner Morgenpost that the drone attack on Moscow on Tuesday was probably a ruse by Russia. He suspects Russian forces staged the drone attack to discredit Ukraine. »The message: ‘Ukraine, like Russia, is a terrorist state’«the »Berliner Morgenpost« quotes him.

Ultimately, this should lead to Western society being less willing to support Ukraine with arms.

Putin, on the other hand, describes the attacks as “clear evidence of terrorist activity by the Ukrainian leadership”, which would naturally fit the narrative Russia is spreading in its propaganda about Ukraine.

Nevertheless, these attacks may be much more uncomfortable for Putin than they have been so far. The most recent attacks have shown that Moscow’s air defenses are far from working as well as expected. Although most of the drones were shot down in the air, the fact that they even reached the outskirts of the capital was a humiliation for the Russian defense – and therefore for the entire Russian leadership.

Putin himself has repeatedly tried to demonstrate the stability of his leadership. But this picture now seems fragile to say the least now that it is clear that hostile drones could pose a threat to Moscow residents.

Yet the autocracy in Russia still has too much influence on the people. According to the expert Libman, open resistance is unlikely, at first almost impossible.