Holidays in Portugal and France: these climatic consequences await you on the wild Atlantic

Wild, unpredictable and huge: The Atlantic Ocean is the second largest ocean on Earth after the Pacific Ocean and is known as the “Sea of ​​Extremes” for a reason.

Especially in Europe, where we have the Mediterranean Sea next door as a direct comparison, the Atlantic coast in France, Spain and Portugal seems relatively cold and rugged. Nevertheless, every year many tourists flock to its beaches for a vacation for swimming and surfing.

But how does the Atlantic Ocean change as climate change progresses – and what are the consequences for coastal residents, travelers and surfers?

With its 106 million square kilometers, the Atlantic Ocean covers one fifth of the entire Earth’s surface. No wonder then that the global consequences of the climate crisis have long been visible in this vast ocean: “The oceans are warming and, as a result, the surface temperature of the ocean is also warming. In addition, sea levels are risingsummarizes Peter Pfleiderer for watson.

He is an expert in the science team of the non-profit organization Climate analytics in Berlin and conducts research on current climate data and extreme weather indicators. In view of the rising water temperatures and the enormous water surface of the entire Atlantic Ocean, he mainly observes the development of tropical cyclones.

“In the region where most ‘tropical cyclones’ form, the surface temperature of the ocean has warmed by about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade between 1982 and 2020,” explains Pfleiderer. The result: Due to warming of the oceans, the chance of strong hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean is twice as high – and the strength of the storms themselves is becoming more and more extreme, as he describes:

Whether such storms form depends on whether the winds above and below the atmosphere are favorable. And whether there is a “disturbance” that could cause a storm. “In the Atlantic Ocean, the winds have been quite favorable over the past decade, resulting in many TCs. The resulting storms formed over a warm ocean, so the risk of the season becoming ‘extremely active’ was quite high,” says Pfleiderer.

Does this also have direct consequences for the holiday regions in France and Portugal?

“Tropical storms are probably not the biggest problem for the French Atlantic coast, although they are not unthinkable in a warmer world,” Pfleiderer gave the all-clear for now. But with a catch, because:

To protect against the increasing risk of forest fires, he says, more resilient planting and conservation of forests, especially in the hinterland of the coastal areas, must be done.

But often entire holiday homes and new hotel buildings had to make way. For the best sea view, they are built in popular places such as the Portuguese Algarve or the French “silver coast”, the Côte d’Argent, ever closer to the water and the beach. The climate scientist Michael Stresser critically assesses this:

At the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Stresser studies the surface dynamics of the world’s oceans and their changes with the climate crisis. When asked by Watson, he explains the connection between the changed wind conditions over the Atlantic and the strongest competitors for the holiday resort construction companies – namely the changed wave movements:

These high waves are then called “swells” – and can flood entire city blocks and wipe out beaches. This has often happened on the west coast of France. For example, in the popular surfing region between Bordeaux and Biarritz.

“Even if there are clear regional differences, climate change on the coast will be felt mainly through the rise in sea levels,” the expert emphasizes. “The coast’s natural response to elevated water levels is to move the shoreline inland.” As a result, the seawater is getting closer to the homes of local residents and tourists.

If there is enough sand and the sea is given that space, new beaches and dunes can be created elsewhere, he says in an interview with Watson. However, if the water rises too quickly, not enough sand can move naturally to sustain the beach. And the beach as a natural space barrier for coastal towns is swallowed up by the water.

The good news is: “With good, natural coastal protection, the current coastline can be maintained to some extent,” Stresser explains. “Where this point is also depends on how much resources society is willing to spend on it.”

Action taken here could have an impact not only on coastal residents, but also on our holidays in the near future, as he notes: “If the costs of coastal protection are passed on to tourists and residents, holidays and living close to the beach can become more expensive.”

A nightmare for homeowners. But can surfers at least be happy?

“Not necessarily,” says Stresser. He explains:

He points to several studies predicting an increase in wave energy in the South Pacific. However, no significant increase in wave height can be observed for the North Atlantic.