Heating with geothermal energy, running the coffee machine on solar energy or skipping the plane when traveling: it is practically all possible. But there are areas where decarbonization is a real challenge: climate-neutral concrete production is one of them. Transporting goods outside the rail connections is a different story. Researchers at ETH Zurich have now come to the conclusion that the majority of heavy trucks will still run on diesel or liquefied natural gas in 2035.
Because the two alternatives have a hard time with the big buzzers: battery and hydrogen propulsion. “Without political measures to decarbonize heavy transport, green technologies have no chance,” explains Tobias Schmidt, professor of energy and technology policy at ETH Zurich and co-author of the study, which has just been published in the journal PNAS.
The ETH wrote in a statement that whether we will achieve the Paris climate target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on whether we succeed in decarbonizing heavy traffic on the roads. But the challenge is great: small trucks (3.5 ton trucks) drive an average of 75 kilometers per day without loading or refueling, medium trucks (7.5 ton trucks) 200 kilometers and heavy trucks (32 ton trucks) 600 kilometers.
“If you consider all lifetime costs, small vans and medium-duty battery-powered trucks are already cheaper than diesel trucks in many European countries,” says Bessie Noll, postdoctoral researcher in Schmidt’s research group and first author of the study. Lower lifetime operating costs are crucial.
But things are different for heavy trucks: according to calculations, diesel and liquefied natural gas are still the cheapest fuels, while green hydrogen is the most expensive option.
Switzerland is an example: only here are heavy trucks running on batteries or green hydrogen already cheaper. “The reason for this is the high toll costs incurred for diesel trucks as a result of the performance-related charge for heavy vehicles (LSVA),” the ETH said in the statement. Zero-emission vehicles over 3.5 tonnes are exempt from this tax.
Globally, however, the researchers’ model calculations show that the electrification of truck transport will only make progress for light and medium-duty vehicles by 2035. They currently estimate the share in these two categories at 50 percent. In Europe and China, 70 percent of small and medium-sized trucks are expected to be electrified. But the share of 35-ton trucks will remain below 10 percent until 2035.
At least as long as there are no effective political measures that stimulate the energy transition in this area. According to the ETH, reduced toll costs for zero-emission trucks in Switzerland are the most effective political instrument to help green technologies in heavy transport achieve a breakthrough.
But why does hydrogen propulsion perform so poorly? Hydrogen trucks require about three times as much renewable electricity as battery-powered trucks. Operating costs are significantly higher because, according to Schmidt, a lot of energy is lost in the production, distribution and conversion of green hydrogen into electricity. (kus/aargauerzeitung.ch)
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