Is the unity fund coming now? That’s what the expert says

A representative study by Watson shows that almost 80 percent of the population wants a uniform health insurance fund. Are you surprised?
Yes, this clarity surprised me. However, this trend has already emerged in previous studies.

What could be the reason why the unified health insurance system is so popular?
We already voted on the unity fund in 2014. At the time, there was a lot of approval in those regions where premium pressure was high. Since premiums have risen repeatedly throughout Switzerland since then, a clear majority of people now probably believe that something needs to be done. Before that, many thought the system worked.

People just want something to happen now.
In addition, confidence in private solutions seems to be crumbling. This is also evident from the strong approval of compulsory health insurance.

FDP voters and SVP voters also indicate that they support a unified fund. How can that be?
In direct democracy, voters can sometimes deviate from the party line on factual points. An FDP or SVP voter can be for the unified fund, but still vote for the FDP or SVP. In addition, the question arises whether these voters would also put a yes in the ballot box if there were a concrete proposal on the table. In your survey the general question was whether you are in favor of a unified fund, but not whether you would support a specific SP initiative.

Less than ten years have passed since the no to the uniform health insurance fund in 2014. Can the wind turn that fast?
Important: It’s just a poll and not a vote. Left parties considering a unified fund can be happy with the results. But a vote is far from won.

A large-scale counter campaign was likely to take place.
Precisely. Approval for initiatives normally decreases during the voting campaign. However, it should be mentioned that there are precedents where the result at the polls suddenly changed within a few years.

Can you give an example?
I am thinking of women’s suffrage. In 1959 it was rejected with 67 percent of the vote against. In 1971 it received a clear majority. In direct democracy, it often takes a few tries before a request goes through and a major change occurs.

Only 11 percent believe the current system can continue. A reminder for politics.
One thing is clear: politicians now have to do more with the books. The pressure to take action around the health insurance system has increased significantly.

Which parties can benefit from the fact that healthcare costs are so prominent in the media in the run-up to the elections?
Your research is certainly good news for the left parties in the election campaign as they campaign for a unified fund. If one party benefits, it is most likely the SP. However, healthcare costs are a complex issue. There are also competent health politicians in the center and in the bourgeois parties. It is not the case that only left-wing parties are concerned with this subject. However, I doubt that the health insurance issue will have a major effect on the election. The voting decision is often made on the basis of the cultural-identity dimension.

What time do voters make their decision before the election? Does the current issue matter at all or do they always vote for the same party?
The proportion of people who do not identify with a party has increased significantly compared to before. People without a clear party affiliation are less likely to vote. It is important for a party’s election results that it can address these voter segments and convince them to vote. Therefore, the current problems may affect the election outcome in the very short term.

So the subject can certainly make a difference.
She plays a role, yes. But in Switzerland the fluctuations are small. Compared to other countries, the party system is characterized by its stability.