Extreme heat in the Atlantic Ocean poses a risk for extreme weather in Europe

Two extremes are troubling to scientists: record temperatures in the North Atlantic and record shrinking size of Antarctica’s sea ice.

According to experts, the high water temperatures in the North Atlantic mean there is an increased risk of extreme weather events in Europe. The North Atlantic is one of the main drivers of extreme weather events, both in Europe and on the east coast of North America, Omar Baddour, chief of climate monitoring for the World Weather Organization (WMO), said in Geneva on Monday. With such high, sometimes extreme temperatures, the chance of heavy rain showers and hurricanes increases.

According to WMO data, surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in June were 0.9 degrees above the long-term average and in the northeast (roughly from Ireland to northern Spain) as much as 1.36 degrees. In June there were sea heat waves off the coast of Ireland with temperatures up to five degrees higher than the average of previous years before the temperature dropped again.

High ocean temperatures and the dramatic reduction in Antarctic sea ice are deeply concerning, said Michael Sparrow, WMO’s director of climate research.

The temperature in the Pacific is known to increase with the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is currently building up again. It is also clear that this has certain effects on other seas, because the oceans are all connected. “But the extreme temperatures in the North Atlantic don’t seem to be related to El Niño right now, not directly,” he said. “We are still trying to understand why we are experiencing such extreme warming in the North Atlantic.”

Sea ice extent in Antarctica was reportedly the lowest in June this month since satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s. In June, this was 17 percent below the long-term average.

The science is looking at whether tipping points will be reached, Sparrow said. According to the definition of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, tipping points are “critical thresholds that, when crossed, lead to strong and sometimes unstoppable and irreversible changes”.

One of those points would be the sudden collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, Sparrow said. If the ice melts, a metre-high sea level rise is to be expected. That would put millions of people living near the coast at risk.

“This is clearly something of concern to scientists, but we don’t have any evidence at this point that we’re reaching a tipping point,” Sparrow said. The development in Antarctica is very new. “We don’t want to make assumptions without having all the evidence on hand, which could take some time.”

(sda/dpa)