class=”sc-3778e872-0 cKDKQr”>
Germany is a country of automobiles. About one out of every 37 people in our northern neighbor works in the automotive industry. There are about 786,000 people in car manufacturers and suppliers; in addition, there are 435,000 more people in the trade and garage trade. And in Switzerland? In fact, one out of every 23 people works in the automobile industry! In absolute figures, it employs about 224,000 people. “What’s happening around the world in the automobile and supplier industry affects us in Switzerland as well,” says Roman Wenk (49) with the old prejudice that there is no automobile industry in Switzerland because there are no manufacturers there.
Wenk leads the automotive industry at KPMG’s Swiss subsidiary. The audit and consultancy company, which operates on a global scale, researches the evaluations and expectations of automotive executives about the future of their sector every year. Instead of just looking at your own crystal ball, it asks those who face industry challenges and transformations every day – for the 23rd time this year.
Basic mood: optimistic
915 executives from 30 countries – including six from Switzerland – answered questions about economic prospects, future technologies, as well as changes in consumer behavior and new business models. About 15 percent hold responsible positions at major automakers, 16 percent at Tier 1 suppliers that deliver directly to manufacturers, and 16 percent in IT companies linked to the auto industry.
Biggest surprise for Wenk: “The optimism in the auto industry is much higher than last year.” Nearly 83 percent of respondents expect the auto industry to grow profitably again in the next five years. Despite Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine? “Unlike the easing Corona and chip crisis, the war has significantly less impact on the industry.” Confidence is also fueled by high inventories, so delivery jobs that have accumulated in recent years can be quickly closed. About 3.6 million fewer cars were produced last year than expected.
Electromobility is slowing down
On the other hand, frustration returns to electromobility. As recently as last year, respondents expected electric cars to account for 70 percent of new car sales in 2030, depending on region – now the forecast is 40 percent maximum. Why? According to Wenk, the energy issue and the development of infrastructure affect expectations: “Of course, electric vehicles are coming. But it’s a little slower than expected.” Ultimately, it’s the consumer who will decide how fast e-cars will settle in. But unless charging is as smooth as refueling and you have to constantly take coffee breaks to cover charging times, some people might hesitate. Most respondents assume 30-minute charging times are acceptable for female e-car drivers.
However, this is not an offer. According to KPMG, around 160 new electric models will be launched worldwide over the next four years. Which brands do the surveyed auto executives see in the future? Not the established ones: by 2030, electric pioneer Tesla, Chinese group Huawei, and Google subsidiary Waymo are expected to be tech leaders. Tesla should also be a leader in sales; behind the respondents we see Audi, BMW and now Apple; Ford is ahead of Honda and Chinese automaker BYD. In fact, Apple ranks fourth because 66 percent of respondents are confident that the inventor of the iPhone will also launch a car – Google (59 percent), Amazon (57 percent) and Huawei (45 percent). According to the research, the key to success will be how well positioned a brand is in terms of image, data security and tool use.
new competition from china
Electric drives are allowing new Chinese manufacturers to catch up – the combustion engine experience of the established ones is no longer worth anything. Does the new competition worry you? “Tesla has shown that new players can also pick up the market,” Wenk says. But at the same time, new producers in Switzerland depend on cooperation. For example, VW importer Amag already does body repairs for Tesla: “New brands also need service companies and workshops. This creates opportunities for those who are established.”
Has the industry already understood the change? “Suppliers are certainly in Switzerland as well,” Wenk says. You are in the midst of transformation and in the last three years of the crisis you have learned to be more agile and flexible. They invest in digitization and bring new knowledge through acquisitions. ‘And they bargain very well; They managed to reflect the increased raw material prices and production costs to the producers.” Swiss suppliers, in particular, could benefit in the future if European manufacturers establish their supply relationships more locally, because, based on the experience of recent years, globalized supply chains “are a question mark.”
Online sales gain importance
What about trade? Respondents in the KPMG study expect the biggest change in sales. Nearly 70 percent expect more than half of all cars to be sold online – in equal parts by manufacturers, dealers and trading platforms – by 2030. “Generation change among new car buyers is accelerating development,” Wenk says. Meanwhile, people who grew up in the digital age can buy new cars: “Our generation wants to touch the car beforehand, but they see no harm in buying it online.” If the link with the Swiss-specific local garage owner breaks down, brands will have to position themselves in a younger way so customers with online affinity don’t migrate elsewhere.
But manufacturers can now also charge higher prices for their models: “After Corona, many buyers in Switzerland said if they wanted a new car, it was a real car.” In addition, when there was a shortage of chips, models with high margins were preferred, while cheap models were not available. This pushed prices up. “With a vaguely economic outlook, cheaper cars are gaining prominence again. As a result, respondents in our study expect global growth of between three and six percent per year through 2030. Optimism also applies to Switzerland,” Wenk says confidently.
To buy a car from Aargau to Zurich
What does this mean for garage owners in Switzerland? “Manufacturers want to be more and more centralized to be able to set prices and exclude discounts,” explains Wenk. 62 percent of auto executives surveyed assume that customers will pay for additional functionality received directly from the manufacturer through software updates in the future – just one business, in addition to falling maintenance requirements for e-cars that dealers will lose. Wenk is confident that mesh density will decrease. Larger dealers with more skills should have their advantages, smaller ones will merge. In the end, good businesses would survive and struggling merchants would die.
But are study participants really responding realistically, or are some assessments made by the car team just wishful thinking? “Partly,” Wenk admits. Especially when you compare results from year to year. Exemplary market share for electric vehicles: In last year’s e-euphoria, respondents expected 50 percent for 2030 – now just 24 percent. “Over the years, the assessments have become more and more realistic.”
That might also apply to the question in the study: Nearly 70 percent of respondents think we’ll be flying vertically-lifting mini-planes by 2030.
Source: Blick
I’m Ella Sammie, author specializing in the Technology sector. I have been writing for 24 Instatnt News since 2020, and am passionate about staying up to date with the latest developments in this ever-changing industry.
