That is why scientists see black for the hydrogen car

Quiet and as clean as an e-car when driving, but quick to refuel: its proponents see hydrogen as the best path between the internal combustion engine and the e-car, whose battery production is currently very resource-intensive. However, the hydrogen car could fail because of the fuel price: cheap hydrogen (H2) for fuel cell cars will probably not exist in the future either.

A recently published forecast by Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation Research expects prices for the year 2045 that will make its use as a fuel in road and rail transport unprofitable. Until now, even more skeptical experts had at least seen use for freight transport as a possible scenario.

This is behind the expected high prices

According to the research, one of the reasons for the high cost of hydrogen is its low price elasticity. Because the steel industry and base chemical industry depend on large amounts of H2 gas or hydrogen-based energy sources such as e-fuels, demand remains constant even as prices continue to rise. Price reductions are therefore hardly to be expected because the pressure on producers is therefore low.

On the other hand, there are alternatives to hydrogen for road and freight transport: electrical energy can also be used directly for battery-electric propulsion instead of for H2 production. With a significantly higher total return. The experts also see the construction sector in a similar situation: hydrogen as a natural gas substitute will probably remain more expensive there in the future than electricity for heat pumps.

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The study expects hydrogen costs to be above CHF 90 per megawatt hour in the long run. Only at a price below 50 francs would demand increase significantly. However, the researchers consider this case unlikely. Production costs below 90 francs are hardly feasible even in the cheapest locations in the world. And then, in addition to the profit margin, there are also the costs for transportation, capital, distribution and research. Promoting hydrogen on a larger scale in land transport, construction and parts of industry therefore makes little sense.

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(t online)