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In the second part of the big preliminary round review, we provide a data analysis of the performance of the Super League teams. Here you will find the first part, which was dedicated to the individual players.
The “expected” table
YB is the fall champion, SLO is at the bottom. But the table would look significantly different if all statistically expected goals and goals conceded had been scored. This would have a direct impact on the points scored by each team. The “Expected Points” (xP) table clearly turns the situation upside down. If everything had happened as expected, St. Gallen would be at the top of the table, YB a club in midfield and Yverdon at the bottom.
- St. Gallen – 34.2xP / Real yield: 33 points
- Napkin – 32.6xP / 31 points
- FCZ – 28.5xP / 31 points
- Lausanne – 27xP / 20 points
- YB – 24.4xP / 38 points
- Winterthur – 24.2xP / 22 points
- Lugano – 24.1xP / 26 points
- Lucerne – 23.2xP / 25 points
- Overall Ranking – 22.4xP / 21 points
- SLO – 21.3xP / 11 points
- FC Basel – 19.2xP / 18 points
- Yverdon – 19xP / 21 points
A look at this “expected” table reveals: Lausanne and SLO are extremely poorly served. There is a total difference of seven or ten points between the actual return and the statistically expected return. On the other hand, YB performed vastly better. The Bernese played worse than the table shows.
‘Bad’ is a relative term. In the xG model, this simply means that YB used his opportunities efficiently and his opponents missed many opportunities. This means: the Berners can count on above-average attackers who do more with less, and above-average goalkeepers. With 40 goals, the Bernese have the most successful attack and with 17 goals conceded, the best defense. And so it is at the top instead of in the middle.
The scoring (least dangerous) teams
From a statistical perspective, the most dangerous team in the league is not YB, but St. Gallen. The Eastern Swiss team scored a total of 35.67 “expected goals” (xG). They made 33. This means: The FCSG has the best chance creation in the league, but there is still a problem when it comes to exploiting them.
The top trio in terms of chance creation is completed by Servette (33.32xG) and Winterthur (30.14xG). On the other side of the table, in addition to Yverdon (20.26xG) and SLO (22.54xG), there are also the Grasshoppers (23.28xG) and Basel (23.9xG). These teams not only lack striker quality, but also creativity.
While GC exceeded its xG value with 27 goals actually scored (thanks in part to a pair of long-range goals), FCB very closely met expectations with 23 goals. This means: FCB reliably scores goals from the few good chances it creates. But he does not have a top striker like YB, who can sometimes score from a less promising position.
Shooting gallery and fortress
FC Winterthur had the shakiest defense of the first half of the season with 39 goals conceded. Statistically, FCW should have received significantly less (32.03xGA, “expected goals conceded”). Bad luck and individual mistakes explain the difference. FCB recorded the most expected goals conceded (32.24xGA). In other words: no team admitted as many top players as the team from Basel.
The fact that YB has the best defense does not reflect statistical expectations. According to the model, the Berners should have conceded at least 27 goals instead of 17. So you allowed many more top chances than you could imagine. Excellent goalkeepers and incompetence of the opponents explain the difference. In fact, the two YB goalkeepers defused by far the most chances in the competition, as the first part of the review showed.
Statistically, the best defense in the league is in St. Gallen. The Espen have had the fewest dangerous scoring opportunities (20.18xGA). Interesting: In the past it was often different. Coach Zeidler has been able to stabilize the defense this season. The FCSG actually had to accept 21 goals – third after YB and FCZ (17, 23.21xGA).
Active aspens, passive hoppers
The data also provides information about playing style. The Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) metric describes a team’s urgent activity. In concrete terms, it measures how many passes from the opponent a team starts to press on average. The lower the number, the faster and more intense the pressing. And the more likely it is that a team will practice substitution football.
Not surprisingly, St. Gallen also tops this list (7.1 PPDA). At the other end of the spectrum is GC (11.68). The record champions are the most passive and laziest team in the league. There is nothing wrong with that in itself; restraint can also be a tactical element. But only the Hoppers themselves know whether it is a tactical trick or laziness.
The bad guys and the lambs
Interestingly enough, St. Gallen and GC are also opposite when it comes to fairness metrics. While the Aspens are the “villains” of the league and resort to fouls the most (257 total fouls), the Hoppers are the lambs of the league. The team from Zurich committed only 194 fouls in the first half of the season. Only Bazel (195) was equally harmless.
That speaks for honesty. But it also shows that the rankings and Basel in the preliminary round often lacked intensity and toughness. Two core qualities in the relegation battle. However, St. Gall did not collect the most cards (55). But SLO was promoted (61). The FCZ (32) received the fewest cards.
|
team
|
SP
|
T.D
|
PT
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
 BSC Young Boys
|
18
|
23
|
38
|
|
|
2
|
 FC St. Gallen
|
18
|
12
|
33
|
|
|
3
|
 FC Zurich
|
18
|
14
|
31
|
|
|
4
|
 Napkin FC
|
18
|
8th
|
31
|
|
|
5
|
 FC Lugano
|
18
|
2
|
26
|
|
|
6
|
 FC Lucerne
|
18
|
-5
|
25
|
|
|
7
|
 FC Winterthur
|
18
|
-7
|
22
|
|
|
8th
|
 Grasshopper Club Zurich
|
18
|
1
|
21
|
|
|
9
|
 Yverdon Sports FC
|
18
|
-14
|
21
|
|
|
10
|
 FC Lausanne Sport
|
18
|
-5
|
20
|
|
|
11
|
 FC Basel
|
18
|
-10
|
18
|
|
|
12
|
 FC Stade Lausanne Ouchy
|
18
|
-19
|
11
|
Source : Blick
I’m Emma Jack, a news website author at 24 News Reporters. I have been in the industry for over five years and it has been an incredible journey so far. I specialize in sports reporting and am highly knowledgeable about the latest trends and developments in this field.
