Is the Corona blind flight coming?

Anyone who misses a corona vaccination in the future can also count on Vadertje Staat in 2023. The spade remains free. Not so the Corona test. The free tests will end on January 1.

Health insurance pays only when ordered by a doctor, but only when it comes to prescribing a Covid antiviral drug. But even then you may have to dig into your own pockets because of deductibles and deductibles.

The number of unreported cases is increasing

The new cost regime has consequences: test centers are already closing en masse and the number of tests is falling. This will also reduce the number of confirmed new infections.

The trend is likely to strengthen next year. The Federal Office of Health (BAG) expects “a significant reduction in the number of tests and the number of tests performed,” spokesman Simon Ming said. “With regard to the reported number of cases, we assume that the number of unreported cases will rise sharply again.”

Abrupt system change “not optimal”

That also entails a certain risk, says chief physician of the canton Rudolf Hauri (62). “The acute phase of the pandemic is certainly behind us.” Due to the low demand for boosters – especially among people who are particularly at risk – the unstable infection process should still be closely monitored this winter.

“The system change in test cost financing in the cold season, which is also abrupt for the population, is therefore not optimal,” says the Zug cantonal doctor. “An extension of the previous test funding until around the end of March 2023 could well have been justified.”

Wastewater management is becoming increasingly important

Will we be back in pandemic blind flight from 2023? It shouldn’t be that bad. Because there are other monitoring elements that reflect the infection process. “In that respect, we are not flying blind,” emphasizes Hauri.

While testing is losing importance as part of monitoring the epidemiological situation, wastewater management is now becoming even more important. “The wastewater monitoring that has been well developed over the course of the pandemic and the experience we have gained with it will greatly help us in further assessing the development and assessment of the situation,” says Hauri.

Measurements at 50 sewage treatment plants

With the BAG it sounds similar. “Since the special situation was lifted in April 2022, assessing the relative viral load of wastewater has gained in importance,” says spokesman Ming. Although wastewater monitoring will also be phased out next year for cost reasons, the viral load will still be measured in 50 wastewater treatment plants. “National wastewater monitoring will continue to play a central role in the assessment of Sars-Cov2 and other pathogens in the future,” says Ming.

Wastewater monitoring also plays an important role for biostatistician Tanja Stadler (41), former chair of the Corona Task Force, because it “gives us very direct information about the course of the pandemic”.

More indicators will help

But there are other indicators from which conclusions can be drawn about the course of the pandemic. For example, the Sentinella reporting system with information from general practitioners or the monitoring of virus variants by means of sequencing.

“The number of hospitalizations is also informative,” says Stadler. “However, these show the development of the pandemic with a slight lag, as it usually takes several weeks from infection to notification of hospitalization.”

Hauri: “No new wave”

The latest figures show a renewed decline in confirmed new infections. On Thursday, the BAG reported 12,632 new cases in the past nine days. More than every fifth test is still positive – the number of unreported cases remains high.

“After a decline, the wastewater data indicate that the circulation of the virus is increasing again, which may be due to the spread of the new variant BQ.1.1,” says Stadler. When she looks at the latest fall wave, one thing is clear to her: “Such waves will always come back in the future, triggered by new variants or the seasonality in fall and winter.”

Meanwhile, canton doctor Hauri believes it is important to pay particular attention to the long-term results of wastewater monitoring and not to short-term fluctuations in individual measuring points in one direction or the other. For the time being, he therefore gives the signal: “At the moment, the regular samples from the sewer collection points now provide a stable picture with certainty: no new waves are coming.”