Who benefits most from Baume-Schneider’s choice

With the election of Albert Rösti (55) and Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (58), career dreams shattered last Wednesday morning – not only those of internal party opponents Eva Herzog (60) and Hans-Ueli Vogt (53).

Because the new composition of the Bundesrat changes the starting position for future vacancies. Anyone coming from western Switzerland or Ticino, and then from the countryside at that, will probably soon forget about the election in the state government. The imbalance is already too great. German-speaking Swiss townspeople, on the other hand, suddenly get a boost thanks to Baume-Schneider’s victory.

Who goes next?

This is especially true for SP, SVP and Mitte. The next person whose seat is likely to become vacant is probably SVP Minister of Economic Affairs Guy Parmelin (63), Defense Minister Viola Amherd (60) or SP Interior Minister Alain Berset (50).

Due to his age, Parmelin will probably consider retiring at some point – perhaps as early as next year’s general election. And in the middle, it is believed that Amherd is likely to step down after her presidential year in 2024. Berset has served on the Federal Council for 12 years in next year’s general renewal election. With Wednesday’s bad election result as Federal President 2023, parliament made it clear to him that he thinks it’s time to take his hat off soon.

Blick shows who can hope now – and who will certainly have to bury the Bundesrat’s ambitions after the last election day.

• Beat Jans (58): The elections to the Bundesrat were a day of mourning for the people of Basel. District chairman Beat Jans can also be happy. As a former national councilor and German-Swiss fellow townsman, he is destined to succeed Alain Berset.
• Flavia Falls (43): Flavia Wasserfallen, a national councilor from Bern, is also in pole position. She didn’t want to be Simonetta Sommaruga’s successor, which in retrospect could turn out to be a wise decision. Because their chances of holding office have increased with the new composition of the Federal Council.
• Gabriel Suter (49): The Aargau National Council and cantonal SP chairman wants to become a member of the Council of States next year and take one of the two seats in the Council of States from the bourgeoisie. Certainly if she fails to do so, she could keep an eye on the Bundesrat.
• Manuela Weichelt (55): One or the other Greens from a German-Swiss city will now have hope. One name heard in connection with a possible Green Party candidacy is Manuela Weichelt. The Green National Council lives in Zug, which means that a donor canton would again be represented in the Federal Council. And Central Switzerland, which has not had a federal councilor for almost twenty years.

• Daniel Jositsch (57): The Zurich SP Council of States is considered the big loser in the last Federal Council elections. The fact that he did not declare his ineligibility before the assembled National Council and the Council of States, after receiving numerous votes on the first ballot, caused a lack of understanding, not only in his own side. One thing is certain for his colleagues: he himself has blocked a future candidacy. And that despite the fact that as a Swiss-German man from the city after Baume-Schneider’s election, he would have had the best prospects of staying in office.
• Pierre Yves Maillard (54): After Baume-Schneider’s victory, the French-speaking SP members can forget all the ambitions of the Bundesrat. This is especially true of union leader and former Councilor of State of Vaud Pierre-Yves Maillard, who lost to Alain Berset in the Federal Council race in 2011.
• Roger Nordmann (49): The dream of the Bundesrat of SP party leader Roger Nordmann, just like Maillard from Vaud, is over. As a member of the party leadership, an old hand in parliament and with an excellent knowledge of German, he would also have had the best conditions until before Baume-Schneider was elected.

• Natalie Rickli (46): If she had started now, she could have been dangerous for Albert Rösti. But Zurich health director and former national councilor Natalie Rickli decided not to run this time – because she wants to be re-elected as a government councilor. Because German-speaking Switzerland is under-represented in the Federal Council, you have an even better chance of landing the next vacancy.
• Magdalena Martullo Blocher (53): The SVP has never had a member of the Federal Council. Pressure is mounting on the party to submit female candidates. Another woman who could get into the wreaths is the Graubünden National Council, SVP Vice President and Blocher’s daughter Magdalena Martullo.
• Christian Imark (40): As campaign manager, Solothurn National Councilor Christian Imark made a significant contribution to the CO last year₂Boden law. That earned him respect in the party. He’s young too – and a little rejuvenation wouldn’t hurt the Federal Council.
• Marcel Dettling (41): He wouldn’t be a city dweller anymore. But Schwyz National Councilor Marcel Dettling is still one of the next potential SVP candidates for the Federal Council, whose chances of being elected increased on Wednesday. In any case, he would have Central Switzerland behind him. He is currently campaign manager for the SVP – the office shows that people in the SVP think of him a lot.

• Celine Amaudruz (43): With the election of Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, parliament has also stood in the way of potential SVP candidates in the Federal Council. If Guy Parmelin subsequently resigns, the Geneva National Council and SVP Vice President Céline Amaudruz will be out of luck. She can only hope that there will be another chance.
• Lars Guggisberg (45): The odds for Bern National Councilor Lars Guggisberg have also fallen. Not because of Baume-Schneider, but because of the choice of Albert Rösti from Bern. Two Berners in the Bundesrat, that would still work. But that both SVP federal council members come from the same canton? Certainly not.

• Gerard Pfister (60): The middle president doesn’t have to completely bury the Federal Council dream. If Viola Amherd does not step down in the next general election, he could still run for the Bundesrat. With his origin – German-Swiss from the Zug location – now two arguments on his side.
• Benedict Wuerth (54): The St. Galler was a member of the government and now represents his canton in the Council of States. Ideal conditions for a Federal Council candidate. You have to close your eyes to see him as a representative of urban Switzerland. Nevertheless, Baume-Schneider’s choice also suits him well.

• Martin Candida (42): The native of Graubünden has just been elected president of the National Council for a year. An office that will bring him a lot of media attention. But he won’t be joining the Federal Council any time soon, at least if Viola Amherd is the next to leave. Because he is not only – again – from the country, but as Romansh would strengthen the under-representation of German-speaking Switzerland in the Federal Council.
• Isabel Chassot (57): Also the State Council of Freiburg Isabelle Hasot would actually be destined for a Federal Council candidacy. Not only does she have government experience, but as a former director of the Federal Office of Culture, she also knows the federal administration. But the same applies to her: as a francophone from the countryside, she is excluded as the next federal councilor.