Rosti suffers from an oil shock

Danny Smurf and Camilla Albor

It can go that fast. Just a few weeks ago, former SVP boss Albert Rösti seemed almost too left to succeed Federal Councilor Ueli Maurer (71). At least compared to his competition, which consisted of hardliners such as security politician Werner Salzmann (60). Rösti was said to be nice and sociable. That was not meant as a compliment. The party leadership would have preferred a tough dog.

Rösti’s level-headedness was well received by the people: in a poll he was the clear favorite for the second SVP seat in the Bundesrat across all camps.

Rösti still enjoys a lot of sympathy among the population. This is the conclusion of a current representative survey by research institute Sotomo commissioned by SonntagsBlick, in which some 12,000 voters from German-speaking Switzerland and French-speaking Switzerland took part. His competitor, the Zurich law professor and former national councilor Hans-Ueli Vogt (52), is not far behind. Specifically: while Rösti has a value of 50 percent, Vogt has 43 percent. The resident of Zurich can score particularly well in the left-green camp. More than two-thirds of Green Party voters support Vogt. The sympathies for Vogt are also significantly greater in the SP and GLP than for Rösti. People with a university degree also have a clear preference for Vogt (51 percent versus 38 percent for Rösti). In the middle class camp, on the other hand, rösti remains the favorite – with 66 percent, supporters of the SVP have the highest approval rate. Thanks to the candidacy of Hans-Ueli Vogt, Albert Rösti is no longer suspected of being left-wing.

Rösti’s electoral chances are even greater

Michael Hermann (50), general manager of Sotomo, explains Vogt’s surprising popularity by saying that, like Rösti, he is seen as a “conciliatory type”. In addition, he is also “city dweller, gay, for marriage for all and an intellectual”.

Rösti’s reputation has also been damaged since the media made his numerous reports a problem. “His lobbying for the oil and auto industry may have cost him sympathy in the left-green camp,” says Hermann. It is the price of the favorite roll. Outsider Vogt did not receive much attention until now – Rösti was the focus of the media. The result: voters from the Greens to the GLP absolutely do not want to see Rösti at the Department of Environment and Transport (UVEK), as the survey also shows. In total, 84 percent of SP supporters are against an environment and energy minister Rösti.

Despite Vogt’s popularity in the left-green camp, Rösti’s electoral chances in parliament are still higher. Because to stand a chance of winning, Vogt would have to have the left-green camp behind him all the way to the GLP and count on individual votes from the center, FDP or SVP. There is currently little evidence for this. On the contrary, MPs from different parties state – somewhat surprised – that no one has ever asked them to vote for Vogt. But without external support, the resident of Zurich will have a hard time.

Parliament sees Vogt as a weak figure

In addition, there is great skepticism in parliament as to whether the professor of law has the qualifications for the position. Even the Left-Green MPs are not enthusiastic about Vogt. “Whoever goes to vote for Vogt does so only to harm the SVP,” says a politician behind closed doors. Because Zurich is seen as a weak figure. In addition – and so far only a marginal subject in the media reports – he is the father of the self-determination initiative. His fight against the “foreign judges” won’t exactly win him hearts from the left-green factions.

The Greens, who have never before recommended an SVP candidate for election, will play a new role in this Federal Council election. President Balthasar Glättli (50) assumes that his party will not make any recommendations this time either. But no later than the second or third vote, the Greens should think twice about who they think is the lesser evil: Rösti or Vogt. And there, team player Rösti, unlike tennis player Vogt, has good chances even in the green camp. City of Zurich or not.