Dangerous Jurassic

Ruedi Studer and Daniel Balmer

Three two one! Three SP candidates are ready to succeed SP federal councilor Simonetta Sommaruga (62). Two of them will be officially nominated by the SP party on Saturday and presented to parliament for election. But only one of them will be elected as a new federal councilor on December 7.

It is difficult to say who will be on the ticket with the comrades. Council of States Eva Herzog (60, BS) and Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (58, JU) as well as Bernese government councilor Evi Allemann (44) are all considered to hold the highest political office in the country. “It’s completely open,” says SP party leader Roger Nordmann (49) to Blick. “The election campaign has received a good boost. It’s exciting to the end.”

Also in terms of content, there are at most nuances between the three women. Herzog and Allemann belong to the reform wing, Baume-Schneider clearly politicians to the left. But none goes so over the top as to hurt the comrades.

A Jurassic surprise?

Suddenly completely different, “soft” factors come into play. If you ask around the faction, Baume-Schneider, who started out as an outsider, could certainly stage a surprise coup. “She is very popular in the group,” says a comrade. “Everyone appreciates her, she is fantastically anchored,” says a comrade. In addition, the Romands of the Jura are likely to be faithful to the ticket.

Strategic considerations of the teams led by Herzog and Allemann also argue for a coup. If Baume-Schneider gets on the ticket, she has the worst cards as the far left in the bourgeois-dominated parliament – ​​which conversely increases the odds for those on the ticket with her. So the Herzog fans have to give their second vote to both Baume-Schneider and the Allemann supporters.

Latin majority?

Concerns about the Jura are voiced by those who consider four Latin-held Federal Council seats too much of a good thing. For political reasons, they say, it should remain a Swiss-German seat. And therefore want a purely German-Swiss ticket.

Moreover, since otherwise the space would at best be opened up for ‘games’ with wild candidates, Parliament should feel that it has no real choice. In any case, the FDP leadership made suggestions in that direction. Conversely, because of this threat, some may write Baume-Schneider’s name on the card out of defiance.

If she actually makes it, the benefits of the vacant spot should rest with Herzog. As an active parliamentarian, she has better connections in the parliamentary group than Allemann, who left the National Council four years ago and is therefore “far away”. More than 40 percent of the faction hardly knows them. According to reports, this is precisely the point that worries Allemann the most.

Election procedure with uncertainties

However, hardly anyone dares to make a prediction. “It’s a chaotic starting position,” says one. It also has to do with the election process. While the SVP determined the two ticket places individually last week, the SP members can write two names on the ballot paper – or just one. Depends on who you prefer. The one who creates the absolute plus is on the ticket. So multiple elections are to be expected.

A slight advantage is currently felt by the two members of the Council of States. But that can change from day to day. “In this situation, it is quite possible that Saturday’s hearings will be decisive.” For Allemann in particular, the hearing should be “game-decisive”. So it remains exciting.