Which parties are in shape – and which are not?

It’s similar to equity funds: just because this or that has been particularly successful in the past doesn’t mean it will stay that way. And if a party has only gotten bigger since the federal election in 2019, that’s remarkable, but also no guarantee that it will continue like this.

Let’s take the two eco parties. These not only rose sharply in the parliamentary elections of three years ago in the autumn, they have also grown in the cantons since then. Yet they will probably do things very differently in the upcoming elections in exactly a year’s time.

And the SP? The country’s second-biggest party has been in a crab walk since 2019. Will it continue to fall on October 22, 2023? It doesn’t have to be.

And success doesn’t even need a strong boss. Although Marco Chiesa (48) is barely present, the SVP politicized close to vaccine skeptics during Corona and recently party exponents made a name for themselves as Putin understanders – things aren’t looking bad for the country’s largest party.

This is the status of the largest parties 365 days before the election date.

SVP – Stable High Power

electoral success. After losing many feathers in the 2019 elections and beyond, the SVP has recently been able to stabilize and even grow in Glarus, Obwalden and Solothurn.
subject boom. The Corona crisis was a double-edged sword for the SVP. Although she was enthusiastic in skeptical circles, older regular voters who belonged to the risk group were rather annoyed by the Trychler course. However, the energy crisis – handily played as an attack on the wallet – could be in the SVP’s favor. And if immigration picks up again, SVP topic #1 will be back.
desk. Nice, sympathetic, but where? You do not notice that Marco Chiesa (48) is chairman.
prediction. The SVP remains stable – and by far the largest party in the country.

SP – weakened second

electoral success. The SP is now used to losing. In 15 of the 18 cantons in which elections have been held since 2019, the comrades lost at least 39 seats.
subject boom. Rising prices, premiums and energy costs: In times of crisis, the SP can score points by fighting for the weakest. Purchasing power will be one of the spearheads in the SP’s election campaign. The party cannot win a flower pot with European policy at the moment – ​​the population has long been left behind.
desk. The narrow yes to the reform of the AHV in September was a heavy blow to the SP duo Mattea Meyer (34) and Cédric Wermuth (36). Well, they made a campaign professional secretary general: he will have a lot to do.
prediction. It will be a success for the comrades if they don’t lose too many percentage points.

FDP – trend reversal thanks to right price

electoral success. De Freisinn is one of the losers – the party has lost a total of 36 seats in the cantons since 2019. But things are looking good again: this year, the FDP won ground in three out of four elections.
subject boom. In 2019, the FDP had bad luck: nobody took up the fight against climate change for it. But now it is no longer about global warming, but about security of supply. That’s where the liberals can score. With a view to a war in the middle of Europe, security, be it military, energy or social security, is the trend.
desk. Thierry Burkart (47) is a strong president. He has led the FDP back to a tight bourgeois course. Not to the delight of the left wing, but recent electoral successes seem to prove the Aargau right.
prediction. The FDP will rise slightly and get very close to the SP.

Center – Fused Hope

electoral success. CVP + TDC = 13.9 percent. The two parties won so many voters in 2019. But the new center has now shrunk by more than 40 seats in the cantons.
subject boom. Addressing the marriage penalty is an old concern, but trickier than the party thinks. Not all hearts go to her. The center was able to distinguish itself by quickly and clearly taking a stand against Russia and cleverly linking this to a debate about Western values.
desk. Since the ‘crime scene’ has attracted less attention, Gerhard Pfister (60) no longer falls into a deep hole after the arrest of the TV murderer, which he always filled with wild tweeting. Now there is almost nothing to criticize about the undisputed leader in the political center.
prediction. The center itself knows that 1+1 is not always equal to 2. It should be happy if it achieves 13.9 percent.

Green – reached the zenith

electoral success. After the Greens won an overwhelming victory in the 2019 elections, they have since gained ground in the cantons. They took 51 extra seats.
subject boom. The climate crisis will last forever. But the subject is increasingly pushed into the background due to the Corona crisis and now also by the Ukraine war. Sticky climate activists still make headlines, also hurting the Greens’ reputation. At the same time, the energy transition is also coming under pressure from the impending lack of electricity. Everything is a bit complicated at the moment.
desk. The eco-wave made the Greens almost a surefire success for a long time. That is not because of the presidency under Balthasar Glättli (50). The party continues to struggle to turn its gains into political successes.
prediction. For now, the Greens have reached their peak.

GLP – still trendy

electoral success. Like the Greens, the Green Liberals could also be riding the eco wave. After the successful elections in 2019, they also scored points in the cantons and managed to win no fewer than 51 mandates. The GLP is still trendy.
subject boom. The climate crisis is still an important topic, even if it is no longer so dominant. It fits the GLP that they are seen as less one-dimensional than the Greens.
desk. GLP chairman Jürg Grossen (53) does a solid job without attracting much attention – neither positive nor negative. The party still finds it difficult to determine its own problems.
prediction. The GLP continues to benefit from the trend and may grow again.