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The SVP warns for a 10 million Switzerland and wants to prevent this with a new citizens’ initiative. The National Council, in turn, demands a report from the Federal Council on how to manage a 10 million Switzerland.
Population growth is still continuing and the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FSO) expects 10.4 million inhabitants in 2050 in its most recent reference scenario from 2020. A scenario that could be quickly corrected, according to demographic researcher Hendrik Budliger (48) in the Blick interview.
Blick: Mr. Budliger, the specter of a 10 million strong Switzerland haunts this country. Should we be afraid of this?
Henry Budliger: The FSO regularly draws up population development scenarios. In the medium scenario we will reach the 10 million mark in 2040, in the high scenario as early as 2034. I think the low scenario, in which we never exceed 10 million, is more likely. After that, the peak will be 9.5 million people and the population will then stagnate, if not decrease.
Hendrik Budliger is head of Demography, a competence center for demography. He studied economics, law and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen and innovation management at the Kaleidos University of Applied Sciences in Zurich and is a qualified financial advisor.
Hendrik Budliger is head of Demography, a competence center for demography. He studied economics, law and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen and innovation management at the Kaleidos University of Applied Sciences in Zurich and is a qualified financial advisor.
I’m sorry, what? Since 2002, the population has grown by an average of 0.9 percent per year. 74,000 people are added every year. This means that we will break through the 10 million mark in 10 to 15 years.
Only if it continues at its current rate. But some signals point in a different direction. The birth rate in Switzerland has fallen to currently 1.38 children per woman. For comparison, in France the rate is 1.84. But the most important factor is immigration.
It has been stable at a high level for years. Last year alone, the permanent foreign resident population increased by more than 80,000.
The key question is whether it will stay that way. More than two-thirds of immigration comes from Europe – with countries such as Germany, Italy, France and Portugal leading the way. With the exception of France, these are all countries where the working population of 20 to 64 year-olds will fall sharply by 2040. In Germany, for example, by 14 percent.
What does this mean for us?
Europe’s population shrank by half a million people last year. The population of working age between 20 and 64 years will even decrease by 2.7 million this year because so many people reach retirement age each year and not enough young people move on. That means fewer people will come to us because they are urgently needed at home. For example, since 2019, more people have migrated from Switzerland to Portugal each year than have moved to Switzerland from Portugal. These are mainly young families. We will miss these people.
Switzerland is so attractive enough to work and live that enough people come.
I think Switzerland is a very attractive country. However, it has lost some of its lead over other countries when all factors are taken into account. Wages are high, but so is the cost of living. Especially if there are children involved. Then you need more money for the apartment or for childcare. In particular, owning a home is unaffordable in Switzerland. In other countries, childcare is more heavily subsidized by the state. If you make the global calculation, many families in the country of origin have more purchasing power, despite lower wages. In addition, the countries of origin actively fight for their people.
As?
Portugal or Italy lure returnees with tax donations. Or with significantly better external childcare than in Switzerland. Especially in the Scandinavian countries or in France with publicly funded childcare, the birth rate is significantly higher than in Switzerland. Given the developments in the surrounding countries, it is dangerous for Switzerland to stick to the current standard.
It becomes a vicious circle. More offers to attract more immigrants to Switzerland, who then need more offers – roads, public transport, apartments, schools, healthcare and, and, and. The spiral continues to rotate.
It is always a matter of weighing up the right solution. What is clear is that due to the aging of the population, more and more retirees are coming for fewer and fewer workers. If there are now 3.3 workers for every retired person, in 2040 there will still be 2.3. The demographic gap is becoming more and more drastic and cannot be closed with the current level of immigration. In demographic terms, immigration is not the problem, but aging.
What does that mean for the future?
The question is what will happen if our society is aging and fewer and fewer people come to us. Who fills the gap in the labor market? What does that mean for our social security systems or for tax revenues? Even if immigration remains stable at 70,000 net, the situation will worsen relentlessly. We need to think more about the age structure than about the size of the population.
Source:Blick
I am Liam Livingstone and I work in a news website. My main job is to write articles for the 24 Instant News. My specialty is covering politics and current affairs, which I’m passionate about. I have worked in this field for more than 5 years now and it’s been an amazing journey. With each passing day, my knowledge increases as well as my experience of the world we live in today.
