Experts expect less growth for 2023

Economists surveyed by KOF also cut their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for the current year to 1.9 percent, as the ETH Center for Economic Research announced in its quarterly KOF Consensus Forecast on Monday. The value is therefore down 0.3 percentage points since the last survey in September.

Experts are also less optimistic for the coming year than in September, as evidenced by the new +0.7 percent GDP forecast (September: 1.0%). In the long run, however, economic growth is seen as slightly more positive, at +1.6% annually (September: +1.4%).

Experts are also making adjustments to the inflation forecast. Their forecasts for both the current year and next year are down 0.1 percent. The forecast for 2022 is +2.9 percent now (September: +3.0%) and 2.3 percent next year (September: +2.4%), which is still higher than the SNB target range of 0-2 percent . In the long term, experts expect the inflation rate to be 1.0 percent now, from 1.2 percent in the last survey.

At the same time, respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise slightly. While it is expected to be 2.3 percent this year, the 2023 expectation is currently 2.4 percent (September: 2.2%; 2.3%).

The SPI is estimated at around 13,850 points at three months and 13,766 points at 12 months. It is currently listed at 13,825 locations.

20 economists participated in the survey for the KOF Consensus. The survey took place between November 29 and December 14, 2022 – just before the SNB’s rate decision last week, which is in line with what experts were expecting.

The KOF Consensus expert survey should not be confused with the KOF economic forecast. It was released on December 15, 2022.

(SDA)