Will layoffs continue?: Unions accuse employers of pessimism

As Swissmem reported in response to Blick’s request, some layoffs may occur in individual companies due to the bad economic situation. “We do not expect a wave of layoffs at this time,” the association says. On the contrary, the crisis is likely to reduce the existing labor shortage.

Employers and unions agree

Simon Wey, 47, chief economist at the employers’ association, agrees with this assessment. “Most laid-off skilled workers quickly find employment again at other companies,” he says. Swiss Trade Union Federation (SGB) economist David Gallusser (38) also shares this view. Words of warning from the industrial sector still surprise. “The post-pandemic boom is over. “It would be presumptuous to talk about a recession,” Gallusser tells Blick. Production is still high. Large publicly traded companies will continue to make good profits. Even new orders are still above pre-pandemic levels.

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Current data from the Federal Statistical Office (BFS) shows that: The industrial sector as a whole is on the rise again in the third quarter of 2023. Swissmem answers: “The fact that the sector as a whole has performed so positively is largely due to the energy supply, which is statistically a part of the sector.” Still, when we look at Swissmem figures, we see this: Before 2021, order load and sales were much lower than now.

Fig leaf for wage negotiations

Gallusser therefore sees the industry union’s pessimism as a fig leaf for wage negotiations. In its statement, Swissmem demands not to impose an “additional burden” on companies and to be cautious about wage demands.

However, the SGB sees both an adjustment in the cost of living and an increase in real wages as justified. “For the last two years, companies have mostly been able to pass on their costs to consumers. “So it wouldn’t be fair for employees to be left to their own devices,” says Gallusser.

“Pay expectations in the MEM industry are quite cautious,” says Wey. They are well below the overall economic average in the industry, as a September survey by the ETH Zurich Center for Economic Research (KOF) showed. “Companies are careful not to give too high wage increases.”

Gallusser also doesn’t want to reveal the fact that things can get tight at individual companies. But he emphasizes: “Most MEM companies still have the ability to pay higher wages.”