Swiss politics is not known for big decisions. But something historic could happen this year. “Elisabeth has the chance to go down in history,” Vaudois SP councilor Pierre-Yves Maillard told “NZZ am Sonntag,” referring to fellow party member Baume-Schneider, the new head of the Interior Ministry.
For the president of the Swiss Federation of Trade Unions (SGB), it is expected that the federal councilor, with whom he would have a direct line, will follow in the footsteps of Hans-Peter Tschudi. The SP Minister of Social Affairs massively expanded the AHV/IV in several steps in the 1960s. Now another “milestone” could follow.
On March 3, the SGB initiative for a 13th AHV pension will be voted on in about eight weeks. The initiators will launch their campaign on Tuesday. They do this with a lot of tailwind. The first studies show that there is a lot of support for the expansion of the AHV. Even the majority of supporters of the bourgeois parties SVP, FDP and Center are in favor of it.
The next ‘joke’ will probably follow in June, with the SP’s premium aid initiative. A representative Watson survey from the end of August 2023 showed that almost 70 percent were in favor of a cost cap on health insurance premiums. That was before the strong increase that Baume-Schneider’s predecessor Alain Berset had to announce.
Popular initiatives often start with high approval ratings, but eventually ‘crash’. This is even more true if they strive to expand the welfare state. Since the introduction of the right of initiative in 1891, such an initiative has never achieved a majority, wrote the political geographer Michael Hermann in his column in the “NZZ am Sonntag”.
An example that received a lot of international attention was the popular initiative ‘6 weeks’ holiday for everyone’, which was rejected by a two-thirds majority in 2012. It was only partly about social expansion, but the clear no is still seen as a good example of the Swiss people’s unwillingness to receive more government benefits.
Is that changing now? “The year 2024 could go down as a turning point in the history of Swiss social policy,” says Michael Hermann. The AHV and health insurance initiatives are ‘up to date’. More and more people felt that “the ‘deal’ was no longer good for them and that it no longer worked for them,” Pierre-Yves Maillard said in an interview.
Business associations and civil parties are concerned accordingly. The campaign against the 13th AHV pension – led by the SVP – will probably focus on the foundry principle and appeal to the envy of the electorate. High earners and retirees living abroad would also benefit from a 13th AHV pension.
The former did not need the increase, and for the latter the effective value of their AHV pension increased significantly thanks to the strong franc, as the “NZZ am Sonntag” calculated. The initiators counter that people with high incomes pay much more into the AHV than normal earners, because there is no ‘wage ceiling’ for pension deductions in Switzerland.
The question is whether the envy argument will be successful. Current retirees also and especially benefit from the ‘AHV bonus’, in contrast to the 70 francs bonus in the 2020 pension plan that failed in 2017. The third argument against this is the costs associated with the extra pension – around four billion francs according to the federal government.
The initiators point to the well-filled AHV compensation fund, but it is empty due to the wave of baby boomer pensions. It will hardly work without additional revenue, whether from higher payroll deductions, federal contributions or taxes. Even union boss Maillard does not rule out “that additional financing will be needed in 5 to 10 years.”
It is not inconceivable that a quick No campaign will crash the 13th AHV pension. Citizens will have a more difficult time with the SP’s bonus initiative, which will probably be voted on on June 9. Feelings of envy can hardly be mobilized because mainly medium-sized companies would benefit from the initiative.
In the current system of premium reductions, he often falls through the cracks, with families in particular increasingly feeling the consequences. The SP initiative requires that policyholders must spend “a maximum of ten percent of their disposable income” on premiums. This almost never affects people with higher incomes.
The opponents can almost only score points with the costs, which in this case will probably also be significant. The federal government and the cantons will have to subsidize the premiums much more than is currently the case. Michael Hermann believes that the threat of billions in additional spending has become less frightening “in times of Corona loans and CS guarantees”.
The forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS did not cost the federal government a cent. On the contrary, he received a “bonus” of 200 million francs. But the ‘Blick’ calculated that the collapsed major bank had made a total profit of only 800 million francs since the 2008 financial crisis, but had paid out 40 billion francs in bonuses.
The left can also use such arguments to stir up feelings of envy. And she has some expectations from the responsible federal councilor Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, although she must ex officio recommend that both popular initiatives be rejected. Federal councilors must “act with a certain degree of restraint,” says councilor Maillard.
He naturally trusts that his colleague will set the right tone, despite the limitations imposed by her role in the Federal Council. It seems to be slowly dawning on citizens that their majority in the Federal Council may have made a major miscalculation when they apparently handed over the Ministry of the Interior to the popular figure from the Jura without a fight.
Michael Hermann sees Baume-Schneider in the role of “the emphatic, people-oriented opponent” of the powerful Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter (FDP), who wields the austerity hammer. To their ‘horror’, the course could be set ‘in the direction of pensions and joint funds’, two decades-old ‘wishdreams’ of the left.
Hermann is not “right-wing,” but even he fears “an important strength of this country” if the population’s unwillingness to expand social services is lost. Votes have to be won, and this finding applies even more to popular initiatives. Nevertheless, 2024 could be a Swiss ‘social turning point’.
source: watson
I’m Maxine Reitz, a journalist and news writer at 24 Instant News. I specialize in health-related topics and have written hundreds of articles on the subject. My work has been featured in leading publications such as The New York Times, The Guardian, and Healthline. As an experienced professional in the industry, I have consistently demonstrated an ability to develop compelling stories that engage readers.
