“Many people believe it could get worse”

The road to Andreas Krafft crosses a 280 meter long suspension bridge in Goms. The valley, which is 1200 meters above sea level, is green. The futurologist has a chalet there. He has been searching for hope for years.

Mr. Krafft, can we expect snow?
Andreas Kraft: You can, but it doesn’t do much. When you focus on something that should definitely be, you are more likely to be disappointed. In this case, there will be hope of having as much profit as before. It’s a fear-based wish, so that it doesn’t snow. Psychologically, this is the opposite of hope. You focus on the negative and only see what could go wrong. The fact is that several chairlifts in the lower districts have already closed.

But that’s exactly what makes you hopeless.
This is surrender, you give up. But hope means opening yourself up to new possibilities. When there is no snow, new ideas are needed. You can’t make snow, and that will only get worse over the next few years as the climate improves.

what shall we do
This is not a problem that can be solved in the short term. But as the pandemic has already shown, necessity is the mother of invention. When the curfew came two years ago, everyone in the area stood there shaking their knees first. What followed was the most successful year for the regional hospitality and catering industry.

You are searching for Hope, what exactly does that mean?
Hope is always associated with uncertainty. There is no hope without the possibility of disappointment. It arises from the crisis. This word comes from Greek and means turning point, so it could be better or worse. It’s not about optimism, it’s something else.

What is the diffrence?
Optimism is based on the assumption that everything will be fine. Hope means I don’t know if it will be okay. But I believe there is something I can do to improve the situation.

So is hope more realistic?
Yes, in any case. Because it starts from the perception of the difficult situation. Hope is not just a wishful thinking, it starts when you know things are not going well. It’s like that these days, you can’t be optimistic anymore.

Why is that? Why?
People are pessimistic about the future on environment, war and social issues. This has been going in that direction for several years now and has intensified. More than 60 percent of the population believe their quality of life will deteriorate in the next 20 years. Only twelve percent think it will be better than today. This is the hope barometer we published together with Swissfuture for the 14th time this year.

Where does this pessimism come from?
They are the first generation who do not believe that their life will be better than their parents’. There was this expectation in the past and it came true. It was still for me, my family did not study, I had this opportunity. They could not travel much and migrated to Argentina for a better life. I could afford to see the world and own a house and vacation home with my family. We have come to a time when this idea of ​​continuous improvement is no longer viable.

Why?
Because we already have what we want to achieve in the 20th century: prosperity. And it’s at such a high level that we’re faced with a natural but sometimes distressing situation that many people believe could only get worse.

Reached the top as in the Roman Empire, now it’s just going downhill?
So many people are experiencing this. However, the biggest problems of our age are not about the economy, but about our environment and social problems. In poorer countries like Nigeria, India or Colombia, people still hope for economic growth and therefore better living conditions. People are also more hopeful because there is still potential there, especially the younger generation compared to here.

What makes life so difficult for young people in Switzerland?
It is this helplessness that they sometimes experience, especially in relation to the environment. You feel that you cannot change anything, and this leads to a feeling of powerlessness. What they have is taken from them, and what is urgent seems impossible.

Is it the same as your children?
Yes, they are about 20 years old now. Since their birth, there has not been a collective experience that has produced a noticeable improvement in society. For example, in Colombia, the civil war has largely been overcome and people can go out again without fear. Or in India, the castes are not so strictly separated anymore, the economy has been booming for years. The people there know they don’t live in heaven, but they perceive positive changes and they have perspective.

And is there no one in sight?
Take your time, because our society is facing challenges that cannot be solved overnight. Constantly confronting negative issues especially affects young people.

Why is that? Why?
They hardly experienced that crises could be overcome. It’s like first love falling apart. This feels so tragic. But over time, you learn that difficulties can be overcome. That’s why older people are more hopeful.

How can you give hope to young people?
We go to schools with hope workshops to make young people believe in good things again and show that all is not lost. First of all, it’s about accepting that not everything is as bad as it seems. There are simple positive psychology exercises that help change perspective. Everyone can try.

How do they work?
Each night, write down three positive things you experienced. This is difficult for most people at first because we automatically focus on the negative. Because we are conditioned to live negative experiences more carefully and emotionally. It’s not our fault. It comes from the survival instinct, anchored in us just like in animals: in case of danger we must flee or fight immediately.

But we are human…
Yes, we have improved. We have the imagination to wish for a better life, and the belief and confidence that it is possible despite obstacles and setbacks. That is hope, and that is what makes us stand out as humanity. A look at our history shows this.

For example?
The French Revolution in the 18th Century. Although it did not seem likely to reach the goal for a long time, people persevered thanks to their ideals and desires. The great hope back then was freedom. This was needed to achieve greater prosperity with the industrial revolution. Then came the desire for justice among people or between men and women. Each century has set the stage for the next, first for freedom, then for prosperity and justice. Everything is built on top of each other.

And what is the hope of the 21st century?
Prosperity, peace, harmony and a sustainable environment. And it will be the century of women. Most of my classes at HSG are mostly female students. Many understand that more money will not make us happier. And that some get much more, some get less. The gap between rich and poor is widening.

We also live in a time of polarization.
Yes, because we focus on the negative. Anyone who cuts down their small garden acts out of fear of losing something. Assuming the cake doesn’t grow any further, the natural instinct is to defend itself. You struggle so that no one else gets your share. It’s about losing fear instead of gaining hope. In the current situation, we can only win together.

The climate crisis and wars are overwhelming problems.
It takes a lot of stamina as we don’t know if it will be okay or not. We can even assume it won’t. This does not mean that we should give up hope or even give up. Either we will understand this now and take action. Or we stick to old builds and fight distribution wars. And then it just hurts and continues for another 20 or 30 years like before. We either learn or suffer.

What is your guess?
Personally, I believe in a universal, positive force that moves humanity forward. If you compare the situation today with 1923, the prospects are not very encouraging either. People left Switzerland because they were hungry. This has completely changed. It was hard to imagine back then that we live in abundance today and worry about the figure.

Where do we get hope?
It is a deeply human phenomenon and begins with our birth. When we were babies, we could do nothing but cry, laugh occasionally, and sleep. Out of this dependence arises this area of ​​tension between primary fear and primary trust. Over time you learn to stand on your own two feet. Hope is based on benevolence, harmony and trust, as well as openness to new things and believing in the good, despite all the bad in this world. This is what your willpower builds upon. Without hope, human life is unlikely. It is not for nothing they say that hope dies last.