Is “Black Adam” a flop? That’s why there’s now controversy over whether the Dwayne Johnson superhero blockbuster is a lost proposition

How much money studios ultimately earn from a film is not always clear from the outside. Because although the total box office receipts are known and the production budget is often well documented, those responsible like to keep the rest of the film a secret – also to maintain the authority to interpret whether a film is a flop or a hit. This has proven to be a problem especially in the recent past, as there have long been instances where streaming revenue in particular has outpaced cinema attendance.

“Black Adam” is certainly not that kind of movie, but the streaming revenue could play such an important role here that it decides if the movie will be a flop. The superhero blockbuster can be purchased as a premium stream shortly after it opens in cinemas (in Germany, for example, on Amazon Prime Video) – and Warner seems confident that many people will take advantage of it. With the actually minor income from streaming and Co., “Black Adam” will still be in the black in the endWarner sources tell the industry magazine Of.

» “Black Adam” on Amazon Prime Video*

But is that really so? A closer look at the numbers raises skepticism:

“Black Adam”: a disappointment in the cinema

It is known that the production of “Black Adam” alone cost at least 195 million dollars. We also know that it has grossed $384.6 million worldwide to date. As the theatrical exploitation is slowly coming to an end, it can be assumed that the worldwide box office will eventually be around 400 million dollars.

So about $400 million in revenue compared to a $195 million budget – doesn’t that sound good at first? Unfortunately not. Because about half of the income ends up in the cinemas (sometimes even a little more) and a large part of the expenditure is missing: marketing.

according to According to quoted insiders with knowledge of the situation, the studio has invested approximately $100 million in promoting Black Adam worldwide. Warner disagrees with that number. Due to the Corona crisis, the advertising campaign was scaled back and cost ‘only’ 80 million dollars.

But in the end it doesn’t matter much. If you subtract at least half of the revenue because so much money stayed with the movie theaters and add $80 to $100 million to the expenses, it becomes clear: After the theatrical release, it’s still missing at least $75 million, possibly even $100 million, to get out of the red.

Will home theater now save “Black Adam”?

Warner has long claimed that “Black Adam” needs to make $450 million from movie theaters to then hit the so-called “break-even point” along with home theater revenue.in other words: the border between red and black figures, between a loss and at least one zero on the balance sheet. Warner has now corrected that number. $400 million should be enough as you can now expect significantly more streaming revenue.

That the $ 400 million that has now been announced is exactly the amount that is just about achievable is striking and makes us skeptical at first. But one thing helps “Black Adam”: when the movie was conceived, no one thought about premium VoD, ie the ability to stream a movie very shortly after it was released in theaters for a significantly higher price.

Bee it is estimated that premium VoD sales will eventually bring in between $25 and $35 million. A larger part of this remains with the studios than with the cinema revenues. The newly added $35 million in premium VOD revenue would therefore pretty much offset the $50 million less box office revenue.

The calculation shows that even according to Warner’s figures, things are going to get tightto fill the gap of at least $75 million that still exists after theatrical exploitation with premium VoD and other lower-tier sources such as TV sales, Blu-rays, etc. – especially since “Black Adam” was released fairly quickly in what is still the main market is in North America, the HBO Max streaming subscription will land.

And insiders argue the opposite even those Warner songs. Sums familiar with the film’s financial situation would say that $600 million worldwide box office receipts are actually necessary to make a profit.

“Black Adam 2” in danger?

Nevertheless, Dwayne Johnson is determined to develop “Black Adam” into a franchise and make more than just a sequel if possible. As we know, sequels rely heavily on box office results – and this could also be a reason for this intense debate about losing, as Warner probably wants to try and keep the branding “flop” away from the movie. Then also to keep superstar Dwayne Johnson happy, Warner should still be willing to give the green light to “Black Adam 2” admit. It’s easier with a movie that isn’t seen as a flop.

Conclusion: “Black Adam” is certainly not at least a mega flop. But also when Warner managers are on opposite sides If you’re optimistic that the home theater review will take the superhero blockbuster to the black, the overall result is likely to be rather disappointing.

“Black Adam” is currently still playing in many movie theaters, but as I said, it’s already available as premium VoD for both rental and purchase. From January 19, 2023, the superhero blockbuster starring Dwayne Johnson will also be available on 4K Ultra HD, Blu-ray, DVD, and limited 4K UHD and BD Steelbook editions.