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The authors, led by South Korean researcher Min Seung Ki of Pohang University of Science and Technology, write, “The results indicate that regardless of emissions scenarios, the first sea ice-free September will occur between the 2030s and 2050s.”
For their estimates, the researchers evaluated measurement data for each calendar month from 1979 to 2019 and first compared them with simulated changes. The size of Arctic sea ice reaches its summer minimum in mid-September. “The Arctic sea ice area has been shrinking rapidly in recent years, with a gradual decline since 2000,” says the team, which includes climate researcher Dirk Notz from the University of Hamburg.
The results of the study go beyond the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As a result, the Arctic would not be practically ice-free until mid-century on average in September, though under scenarios with moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions.
On the other hand, the researchers led by Min conclude from their observational predictions that “regardless of the emission scenario, we could experience an unprecedented ice-free Arctic climate in the next ten or two decades.”
According to the researchers, this will affect human communities and ecosystems inside and outside the Arctic. The ice-covered Arctic is a habitat for numerous animal species such as polar bears, seals and migratory birds. An ice-free Arctic region would change the living conditions of these species. Ice in the Arctic also plays an important role in regulating the global climate system, as it reflects sunlight, thereby helping to cool the atmosphere. As the ice melts, less sunlight is reflected. This could accelerate global temperature rise.
The authors wrote in the study that it is now important to prepare for a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future and plan accordingly. (SDA)
Source : Blick
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