Despite countless challenges: the “Erdogan system” will not implode

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The controversial political aftermath of the 1999 Izmit earthquake heralded the rise of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69). When large parts of southeastern Turkey were again devastated by a devastating earthquake earlier this year, many observers expected Erdogan’s career to end exactly as it began: with an earthquake.

At the moment, Erdogan appears to be weathering Turkey’s political and tectonic shifts well. In the first round of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, he was the frontrunner in what polls suggest could vote him out.

Even though everything is still open: according to Maurus Reinkowski (60), Middle East expert at the University of Basel, the second round of the elections on Sunday will probably be in favor of Erdogan and his AKP party. For the connoisseur it is clear: “These second round are actually a gift for the AKP.”

Turkish-western relations under a bad star

Because you won, even though all the signs were against you. “It would be a sign of strength for Erdogan and the AKP,” Reinkowski said. “The West will also feel this attitude – after all, the Turkish government felt the revulsion.”

And that is exactly what Turkey sees as betrayal, according to the expert – and wants to punish the West for it. “Although Turkey and the West are interdependent, relations are becoming increasingly unstable and difficult.”

Erdogan’s instinct will probably be to push Turkey further towards neutralism without leaving NATO. In addition, Erdogan is likely to expand and strengthen his relations with the East, but does not want reconciliation with the West for the time being. All in all, Reinkowski draws the sober conclusion: “Foreign policy will remain everything as it is – just on a lot of shaky ground.”

Erdogan is facing economic shambles

A complete break is not to be expected: the West is still Turkey’s largest export market and the main source of foreign direct investment; this fact could bring out Erdogan’s pragmatic side.

Turkey’s faltering economy is one of Erdogan’s biggest problems if he is reelected. According to the World Bank, it grew by 5.6 percent in 2022 from 11.4 percent in the previous year. “The country’s economy was so bad the last time before the AKP came to power,” says Reinkowski.

Voters remain loyal to their president

Despite all the natural, political and economic catastrophes the country endured under Erdogan, the electorate still clings to their ruler. Because Erdogan is a charismatic, gifted campaigner who is loved by the masses at rallies. He thrives on culture wars and divisive, polarizing, fear-based rhetoric that has always helped him solidify and mobilize his base.

According to Reinkowski, this almost unwavering AKP loyalty of the Turks will not simply disappear after the elections. Even if the West expects it, the “Erdogan system” will not implode.

Source: Blick