Guyana’s mini-army of 3,400 soldiers and six armored vehicles wouldn’t stand a chance on its own: that’s how serious Maduro is about an invasion

Tensions are rising in the threatened neighboring country of Guyana. Will dictator Maduro take an invasion seriously or not?

The Guyanese Armed Forces are on standby. They are vastly inferior to Venezuela. Venezuela has 123,000 active soldiers and 515 armored vehicles, while Guyana’s mini-army has only 3,400 volunteer soldiers and six armored vehicles. Venezuela also has 44 fighter jets, including 24 Russian-built Su-30 fighter jets, but only half of them are considered airworthy due to mismanagement and poor maintenance.

Military expert Igor Gielow of the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo describes a possible invasion as complicated. “Much of the 500-mile border consists of dense jungle that is impenetrable to small units.” It is impossible to use armored vehicles in swampy and tropical terrain.

Gielow also rules out an invasion via Brazil. Because Brazil is behind Guyana and has already gathered troops. The most logical option is therefore a combination of an air strike on Esequiba’s few urban centers, combined with an amphibious landing in the Caribbean.

Just an attempt at blackmail?

Maduro, who is hated in Venezuela, could divert attention from his own problems with a war. As he faces a blow in the 2024 elections, a state of war could allow him to postpone or even cancel the election altogether.

Maduro’s threatening gestures could also simply be an attempt to convince the coalition of international oil companies led by Exxon to provide payments, services and other benefits for Venezuela. R. Evan Ellis, Latin America researcher at the US Army War College, says on theglobalamericans.org: “It’s probably just political ploys, tricks and blackmail attempts.”

Maduro is unpredictable

Ellis warns: “As with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States and the world must not dismiss illogical, counterproductive aggression as an impossibility.” Deterrence against a threat that seems unlikely is inconvenient, but still cheaper than responding to an aggression that has already been initiated.

In the event of an invasion, Guyana could count on help from major powers. The US already supports Guyana in training its military. British King Charles III. (75) recently reaffirmed its commitment to support the former colony. It is not known to what extent the two states will intervene militarily.

Guyana’s former president and current vice-president Bharrat Jagdeo (59) describes Maduro as unpredictable. And he emphasizes: “We must be prepared for all eventualities.”