Russia is getting more and more bizarre Switzerland is only 23rd in the expat ranking

During the Cold War, ‘Kremlinology’ was a kind of (para)science. Western observers looked deep into the crystal ball to find out what was going on behind the thick walls of Moscow’s center of power. And who had a say in the difficult to understand hierarchy of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

An indication were the parades on Red Square. Where exactly did the party bosses stand on the platform of Lenin’s mausoleum? Kremlinology is experiencing a revival in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, especially since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Compared to Putin’s mafia state, however, the Soviet politburo was a model of transparency.

This is all the more true of what has happened since the mysterious “uprising” of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner group. More than two weeks have passed since the leader of the mercenaries marched into the city of Rostov-on-Don and sent his fighters to Moscow. On the way, they would have shot down several helicopters.

Even Russian connoisseurs were overwhelmed

The “coup attempt” was stopped about 200 kilometers from the capital (a stone’s throw in the huge country). Prigozhin turned his troops to the right, reportedly at the mediation of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Western media published ‘analyses’ that became obsolete as quickly as they were published.

What happened then and what has happened since overwhelms even experienced Russian connoisseurs. In fact, the hour of the Kremlinologists has come again. Suddenly it was said that Prigozhin was not in Belarus, but in St. Petersburg. And on Monday it became known that the gastro-military entrepreneur met with Vladimir Putin.

Three hour meeting

Putschist meets president: Such a scenario would not even have occurred to the great novelist Fyodor Dostoyevsky, the BBC said roughly. The French “Libération” had reported on the meeting, citing secret service circles. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Monday, saying it took about three hours.

It took place on June 29, just five days after that crazy Saturday when Russia seemed to be on the brink of civil war. And to which Putin, in a short television appearance, accused Prigozhin of “treason” and “stab in the back”, albeit only indirectly (the Russian ruler never mentions his opponents).

Essential Prigozhin?

Since then, the Russian state media has done everything possible to discredit Yevgeny Prigozhin. This included the revelations about his swaggering lifestyle, and as late as Sunday, state television made reference to his criminal past. Now even Russia’s ultra-nationalists are struggling to understand the encounter with Putin.

For Western observers, this is all the more true. The NZZ correspondent in Moscow describes the contrast between Prigozhin’s demonization and the promised post-uprising impunity, including an invitation to the Kremlin, as “bizarre and irritating”. Apparently Putin does not want to do without Prigozhin “and his disciplined troops”.

So here’s a self-experiment in Kremlinology:

Vladimir Putin has been so weakened by the war in Ukraine, officially still called a “special military operation”, that Wagner’s nefarious troops have actually become indispensable to him. Nor can he do without his devoted followers, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.

They are the “mortal enemies” of Yevgeny Prigozhin. One version of events is that he marched to Rostov to take her into custody. The southern Russian city is the army’s main logistical hub for the war in Ukraine. But he “caught” only Schoigu’s deputy and a high-ranking general, whom he presented in a video.

Surovikin as “pawn sacrifice”?

While Sergei Shoigu soon reappeared, it was speculated that Valery Gerasimov, the commander in the Ukraine war, would be ousted. On Monday, however, the Kremlin released video of a meeting between Gerasimov and other senior officers. As in Soviet times, it reveals who was in it – or not.

This refers to Sergey Surovikin, Gerasimov’s predecessor as commander of Ukraine and friend of Yevgeny Prigozhin. He has disappeared without a trace since the coup attempt. In Monday’s video, Surovikin’s deputy played the part he deserves. Does the general, notorious for his brutality, serve as a “pawn”? And what’s next for Prigozhin?

Low raw material prices

Many questions remain unanswered. But Putin’s regime does not seem as stable as his “understanders” like to claim. The economic situation is in line with this. In recent months, the story has been spread that the sanctions are ineffective and would only harm the West, not least by pro-Russian media such as “Weltwoche”.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian of America’s elite Yale University have now broken it down in great detail in Time magazine. The claim that Vladimir Putin can continue to fill his war chest thanks to high commodity prices, they relegate to the realm of fables. Because the prices for oil, gas and even wheat are now lower than before the invasion.

“A Potemkin facade”

The oil price cap imposed by the G7 states is particularly effective. Russia hardly earns any money from its exports. In return, Vladimir Putin “cannibalized” the productive economy. Sonnenfeld and Tian write that he imposed draconian “excess profits” taxes on just about anything that moves.

The supposed resilience of the Russian economy is “nothing but a Potemkin facade”, the American researchers conclude. Rather, the situation is increasingly reminiscent of the time before the October Revolution of 1917, when Russia was bled out in World War I. In the end, poverty in the country cost Tsar Nicholas II not only his crown, but also his head.

Oligarchs behind Prigozhin?

Putin need not (yet) fear a similar fate. But even Western-sanctioned resource oligarch Oleg Deripaska complained that the Kremlin ruler’s “war economy” was doing more damage to the country than the punitive measures. That could support an attractive proposition that had already surfaced on the day of the Wagner Rebellion.

Yevgeny Prigozhin therefore did not act (alone) of his own accord. Behind him were sections of the Russian elite who had had enough of war, mismanagement and sanctions. For example, oligarchs who want to sail their yachts through the Mediterranean again and drink champagne. Real champagne and not Krimsekt.

That doesn’t sound very plausible. But who knows what is going on in Vladimir Putin’s opaque and increasingly rotten mafia state. Kremlinology will continue to flourish. And how the Cold War ended with the Soviet Union is known.