“Lukashenko sheltered a dangerous animal” Drama in the Baltic Sea – mother and child fall from the ferry and die

After the Wagner mercenary group rebelled against the Kremlin, the future of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is uncertain. “Putin doesn’t want to torture Prigozhin, so he’s probably safe for now” – but that won’t be long, writes military analyst Sean Bell in an op-ed for Sky News.

Yevgeny Prigozhin marched into Russia last weekend with his Wagner mercenaries, but he broke off his “March of Justice” towards Moscow through the mediation of Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously called Prigozhin a “traitor” but released him into exile in Belarus. He also gave his Wagner mercenaries involved in the uprising the choice to go to their families or to Belarus – or to join the Russian army.

Meanwhile, satellite images suggest that Prigozhin has set up a tent camp with many of his mercenaries near the Belarusian capital of Minsk. Research also shows that the offices of the mercenary force are apparently suddenly recruiting more men for the war in Ukraine. But what happens next to their leader, Prigozhin? Military analyst Bell writes of a “dangerous animal” – and a “walking dead man”.

“After Prigozhin burns his fingers, it is very unlikely that Putin will trust him again,” Bell said. Once the dust settles, a new, smaller Wagner group will rise from the ashes – led by the Russian Defense Ministry. It could then become difficult for Prigozhin.

“Once Putin has restructured and renamed the mercenary force, isolating Prigozhin from his business empire and curtailing his influence and authority, Prigozhin’s future prospects could become a bit more uncertain,” Bell writes, referring to the Kremlin’s numerous opponents mysteriously left town. in the past, windows fell. Just last week, a Russian bank boss fell from the 11th floor of a building and died.

The Kremlin has already taken the first steps in that direction: several media outlets of the Wagner Group were blocked by the Kremlin on Friday. Putin is accustomed to “making sacrifices in his great strategic international chess game,” Bell writes. Prigozhin has now become an “available pawn” who will probably be sacrificed to save “King Putin”.

Wagner a threat to Lukashenko?

But it may take a while before it can get to that point. Meanwhile, Belarusian ruler Lukashenko should be worried, Bell warns. “He has given refuge to a dangerous animal, and if Prigozhin keeps even a part of his mercenary empire in exile in Belarus, history could repeat itself and Lukashenko will be less well protected than Putin,” the military analyst writes.

Belarus’ neighboring countries have already recognized this: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is having the border reinforced and NATO’s eastern border is also being strengthened. Germany wants to station some 4,000 extra Bundeswehr soldiers at the border.

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(t online)