Wagner expert Marcel Plichta on the power struggle in Russia: Can Prigozhin win the war against the Kremlin?

Marcel Plichta (28) is a doctoral candidate in the Department of War and Strategy Studies at the University of St. Andrews and a former U.S. Department of Defense analyst. For him it is clear: “What is happening is the provisional highlight of the past few weeks.” Because an escalation of the conflict between Prigozhin and Putin – which has been dormant for months – has become visible.

Prigozhin’s taunts have reached their peak

Wagner boss Prigozhin repeatedly threatened the Russian Defense Ministry – and with it the Kremlin – and bemoaned the military leadership. Earlier this month, his troops even arrested a Russian soldier. “The Kremlin is increasingly concerned about Prigozhin’s behavior,” Plichta said in an interview with Blick. “Now they had to respond.”

But where does the displeasure of the highest mercenary come from? “He did not and does not want to submit to the Russian Ministry of Defense,” explains Plichta. “That’s why he fought back – hoping the Kremlin would offer him something extra.” That never really happened, Prigozhin continued to bully.

Putin will come out of the situation damaged

Until it escalated Saturday night. “Prigozhin certainly did not expect that”, the expert estimates the situation. “He kept challenging it – now he has to face the consequences.” And that could end bitterly for Prigozhin.

After all, he only has a fraction of the troops that Russia has. And: when it came to military logistics, the Wagner mercenaries in the war in Ukraine always depended on the Russian Defense Ministry. “I don’t think Wagner can win this fight.”

But unrest is also increasing among the Russian political elite. “The Kremlin is in panic mode,” Plichta assesses Putin’s TV announcement to his people. “Putin will come out of this situation very hurt. His promise to protect Russia is now broken.”

The British Ministry of Defense even describes the recent events as “the biggest challenge for the Russian state in recent times”. Putin himself sees parallels in the current situation with the Russian February Revolution of 1917, which ended the reign of the tsars.

Ukraine can benefit from internal conflicts

According to Plichta, Putin must now withdraw some troops from Ukraine to protect his country against the Wagner rebels. Russia will not halt all efforts in Ukraine, but: “This could help Ukraine identify and exploit weaknesses in Russia’s defense line.”

So far, the Ukrainian leadership has made only limited comments about Russia’s internal power struggle. Mandata: “We can assume that the military leadership of Ukraine is closely monitoring the situation.”