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It is five to twelve: if the parties in the US do not come together in the debt dispute by the middle of next week, the government risks default, which would also have a devastating effect on the war in Ukraine. Because in addition to shaking the US, there would be shock waves in the international financial system with unpredictable consequences for global trade flows, economies and political stability around the world.
Military expert Ralph D. Thiele (69) of the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Advice (ISPSW) in Berlin speaks dramatic words: “For Ukraine, such a development would be the beginning of the end.”
The US, which has so far supported Ukraine with some $75 billion, should withdraw as an arms supplier, if not completely. Thiele: “But many other previous suppliers would also need to reassess their previously planned support to Ukraine and probably significantly limit, if not completely stop.”
This week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (63, SPD) said in the Bundestag: “The end of arms deliveries today would mean the end of Ukraine tomorrow.” Pistorius pointed out that Ukraine has no relevant war economy of its own and is absolutely dependent on other states. The US is the biggest burden of this outsourced war economy, Germany is number two by some distance.
American political scientists are also pessimistic about a default in Ukraine. James W. Davis, 59, of the University of St. Gallen says: “A state bankruptcy could jeopardize further aid to Ukraine, as unspent funds would certainly be reallocated to meet the running costs of the US military. “
The specter of a default is recurring in the US. It allows the respective opposition to push through their own concerns. Until now, the two fronts have always found a compromise.
Opinions differ on how it will end this time. Marco Steenbergen (60), American expert at the University of Zurich, believes that this time “the risk of default is real”. Steenbergen: “There are Republicans who would probably be just as happy to see an economic crisis to improve their chances in the 2024 election year.”
James W. Davis hopes the parties will find a compromise given the political ramifications. “But a major accident can also happen,” he adds. In that case, Biden would likely explore “Uncharted 14th Amendment territory” and increase the national debt without Congressional approval. The debt now stands at $31.4 trillion.
Ralph Thiele, on the other hand, is confident that disaster will be averted. Thiele: “The majority of both political parties want to bring Russia to its knees and are also preparing for a possible dispute with China over Taiwan. Therefore, the two opponents in the domestic financial dispute will be careful to ensure that an agreement is reached in a timely manner.”
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
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