These are the spearheads of global migration

His verdict: migrations caused by weather and climate are sometimes not as large or not as long-lasting as is often claimed. Münz: «Over the past ten years, it has mainly been violence and political crises that have triggered large waves of refugees: the civil war in Syria, the mass impoverishment in Venezuela, the Russian attack on Ukraine. So far there has been no major climate migration to other countries.”

Welthungerhilfe predicts more than 140 million climate refugees in 2050. Münz puts things into perspective: “Even in the future, not all those affected will move. And those who migrate mainly change their place of residence in their own country.”

Observations showed that more than two billion people have moved from rural to urban areas in the past 30 years. “However, we don’t know how many of them have lost their livelihoods due to persistent drought, soil erosion or increasing heat,” says Münz. Rural-urban migrations usually take place within national borders.

However, climate change does not necessarily lead to migration. There are other adaptation strategies. “In the Netherlands, one third of the population lives below sea level. They have organized effective protection against storm surges.”

Munz also cites Dubai and Israel’s Negev desert as examples, which are experiencing increasing heat and severe drought. Extremely water-saving agriculture is practiced in the Negev. At the same time, Israel and the Gulf States are desalinating seawater on a large scale.

In the period between 2008 and 2021, to which his study refers, 342 million people had to leave their homes due to natural disasters. However, of these, all but six million were able to return home or at least to their home region. Munz: “Unlike wars, natural disasters rarely lead to permanent displacement or emigration to other countries.”

And more good news: the number of natural disasters has increased significantly over the past 120 years. But despite the world’s population four times as large, the number of fatalities is much smaller today due to better warning, more stable homes and timely evacuation.

With about four million migrants out of a population of 85 million, Turkey is home to one of the largest refugee populations in the world. After the elections, a refugee flow to Europe may come. Münz: “The promising presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, promised during the election campaign to halve the number of Syrian refugees within two years.” But current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) has also expressed plans to resettle some of the Syrian refugees in Turkish-controlled northern Syria.

Both plans could trigger a flight to Europe. “We don’t know how many such statements are threatening,” says Münz. Kilicdaroglu is particularly interested in better relations with the West. And possibly Turkey would continue to keep its borders tight with another EU payment of several billion euros.

It is often overlooked that marriage and family reunification have recently become the most common forms of immigration to Europe. That plays a bigger role than labor migration. “Many diaspora members living in Switzerland, France or Belgium marry a partner from the region where the parents or grandparents originally came from.”

Migration from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia in particular to the EU often takes place after marriage with a partner who already lives in Europe.

Since 2013, there have been more deaths than births in Europe. There is a threat of a shortage of labor in the long term. Münz: “We have to decide how we want to solve the problem: working longer into old age, increasing AHV taxes and contributions to the pension fund, delaying old-age pensions, automating service provision – or allowing more immigration.”

According to Münz, even Switzerland cannot do without further immigration in the medium and long term. “Either we train the immigrants better here, or we specifically look for the skilled labor we need abroad.”

How much immigration can Switzerland handle? Münz: «It’s about the pace of immigration and integration. The qualifications you bring are very important. But there must also be enough living space.”