What can the West expect from Kilicdaroglu?

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Turkey votes on Sunday. The elections also coincide with the 100th anniversary of the establishment of Turkey’s secular government. The British magazine “The Economist” describes the elections as “the most important elections in the world in 2023”.

After more than 20 years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) threatens to be voted out on Sunday. And especially by the meek bureaucrat and former accountant Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74), who leads the opposition party CHP.

According to Middle East expert Maurus Reinkowski (60), it is about Turkish democracy as a whole. While Erdogan has increasingly turned Turkey into an autocratic state, Kilicdaroglu could be the savior of Turkish democracy. “Kilicdaroglu will bring democracy back to life in Turkey,” he told Blick.

Sunday’s elections would mainly answer one question: “In a state with autocratic tendencies, is it really still possible for the opposition to take power through elections?”

Good chances for Kilicdaroglu

Figures from “Politico” show: Kilicdaroglu has a good chance. Six Turkish parties support him. The latest polls show that 50 percent of Turks want him to be their country’s next president. Erdogan floats at 46 percent.

Kilicdaroglu is also considered a beacon of hope in the West. Because Europe and the US hope that it will bring about a profound change in the country’s domestic and foreign policies.

Change is coming – but slowly and insidiously

This means that Kilicdaroglu faces a mammoth task. Because Erdogan has changed a lot in 20 years in power – and little for the better. Erdogan’s legacy lives on. That is what Savas Genc (49), a Turkey expert at the University of Heidelberg, says about Blick. Turkey has increasingly isolated itself from the EU and the Turkish economy is doing “worse than ever”. Reversing such developments takes time.

The Basel expert Reinkowski also puts Kilicdaroglu’s expectations into perspective: “He can undo reforms that Erdogan has brought about.” But one should not be under any illusions: “Even under him, Turkey will not turn its politics completely upside down.”

Will Kilicdaroglu break with Russia?

While Kilicdaroglu shines with expertise in domestic politics, he is a blank slate in foreign policy. Genc and Reinkowski therefore suspect that Kilicdaroglu could also continue Turkey’s Russian Russia policy pursued by Erdogan.

After all, Turkey and Russia are linked by a close economic relationship. In 2022, goods worth $62 billion will be traded between the two countries. In contrast, the country on the Bosphorus only imported and exported a volume of $40.9 billion to and from Germany, Turkey’s second most important trading partner, during the same period.

Thanks to the Ukraine war, the country has also gained international importance, precisely because it still has a more or less functioning connection with Russia. Something Kilicaroglu will not gamble lightly on according to Genc and Reinkowski.

Source: Blick