Will Erdogan play Trump if defeated?

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) vs Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74), or; Islamic-conservative nationalism against a socially liberal new beginning: the Turkish political duel enters its final round on May 28. Then it will be decided which of the two men will govern the country with its 86 million inhabitants for the next five years.

For the first time since being elected prime minister in 2003, Erdogan appears likely to lose the election. The only question is: would he also accept the result?

The opposition fears that Erdogan will cling to power with all his might, even if defeated. “My people will not hand over the country to a president supported by the PKK,” Erdogan lamented a few days ago. He regularly labeled the “Kurdish Workers’ Party” (PKK) as a terrorist gang and accused his opponent Kilicdaroglu of being politically close to their leaders. Erdogan’s Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu (53) openly accuses the West of secretly plotting a “coup d’état” in the Turkish elections.

Erdogan lost twice in Istanbul

The mayoral elections in the metropolis of Istanbul, which has 16 million inhabitants, four years ago showed how poorly Erdogan can accept political defeat. His favorite narrowly lost to the opposition candidate. The embittered president went on a rampage and ordered the election repeated. The shot failed: Erdogan’s protégé lost so clearly that the Turkish government reluctantly had to relinquish political control of the country’s largest city.

Erdogan is doing everything he can to avert the impending defeat. He recently presented the first Turkish aircraft carrier (cost: 900 million) and promised to raise the minimum wage again from the current 8,500 lira (390 francs) in July.

Blick spoke to both Erdogan supporters and Kilicdaroglu fans at campaign events in Izmir and Istanbul. Erdogan’s people say in unison: if he loses, it will be because of American interference in the election campaign. “In the end, God’s will will be done,” says Erdogan supporter Mujahid (60). The Kilicdaroglu camp replies: Erdogan will not just resign his post after 20 years in power. “If he loses, there will be a civil war here,” says Kilicdaroglu voter Fikret (64).

Where have the thousands of firearms gone?

Erdogan himself is spreading fears among his supporters that if he is voted out, it will lead to total moral collapse in Turkey. Since the fall of the Islamic leaders in Libya in 2011 and Egypt in 2013, and especially since the outbreak of the political crises in Iran and Sudan, it has become clear that if Erdogan loses the elections in Turkey, political Islam will have its most powerful defender.

Much is at stake. Opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu personally warned his supporters not to celebrate Erdogan’s defeat in the streets. The danger of confrontations with armed groups is real.

The whereabouts of thousands of firearms handed out to its supporters by the Turkish government after the attempted coup in the summer of 2016 are still unclear. It is to be hoped that they will not reappear at the dumbest moment – and that Erdogan will defend himself against impending defeat only with democratic weapons.

Source: Blick