Is the Ukrainian counter-offensive starting here?

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The impending Ukrainian counter-offensive is perhaps one of the most analyzed military operations in history. Expectations are correspondingly high. Observers have been waiting for weeks for the major tank battle that will usher in Ukraine’s counter-offensive. But the offensive could have been going on a long time ago. ETH military expert Marcus Keupp, among others, suspects this in an interview with Deutschlandfunk.

Indeed, reports of violent Ukrainian counter-attacks have been piling up in recent weeks. For Keupp, these “preparatory fire” – artillery and drone strikes – are clear signs of the first phase of the counter-offensive.

The movements and attacks of the Ukrainian troops indicate the general direction of the counter-offensive: south. The first local offensives are already underway. An overview.

That reports the Twitter account OSINT defender Ukrainian forces have already launched a local counter-offensive near the southeastern city of Wuhledar. This is also confirmed by data from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to regional military spokesman Oleksiy Dmitrashkovsky, Russian troops are also preparing to storm the city again. On Saturday alone, the city was attacked six times by the Russian air force. The information could not be independently verified.

Just over 100 kilometers west of Wuhledar is Zaporizhia. The oblast annexed by Russia is home to Europe’s most powerful nuclear power plant of the same name, making offensives in the region particularly risky. If the nuclear power plant is hit, it could lead to a nuclear disaster, writes The Times. According to analyzes by the ISW, troop movements have already started here.

Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan notes: Zaporizhia will be the focus of a Ukrainian counter-offensive. And also Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst, describes Zaporizhia as an important point for the Ukrainian army. Because once most of the oblast is back in Ukrainian hands, the troops could decide to continue their advance towards Melitopol. From there, according to Matveev, Ukraine could launch an offensive towards Crimea.

In recent days and weeks, reports of drone attacks in Crimea have repeatedly reached the world. Signs of a counter-offensive in the south of the country? According to ETH expert Keupp, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 is identified as the center of the counter-offensive.

As the central military and logistical center, the Russians’ entire southern front is supplied from Crimea. Keupp concludes: “If this area can no longer be held, then the entire southern front will also be untenable. And if that is no longer tenable, the Donbass front will also be untenable.”

Speaking of Donbass: Bakhmut is still hard fought. According to British analyst Mike Martin, the Ukrainians largely achieved what they set out to do there: they were able to hold the city while pushing back the Russians and destroying their equipment.

Wagner’s mercenary group even announced their withdrawal from Bachmut. “Operation Bachmut” had reached its peak. In other words, the Russian forces have failed. And the Ukrainians can use the resulting vulnerability to advance east as well.

Source: Blick