ETH expert Marcel Berni: “Ukraine faces a dilemma”

The Ukrainians have been talking about a counter-offensive for weeks. When will it take place?
Marcel Bernie: I do not know. We are currently observing a kind of interlude. The Russian winter offensive has largely failed. Ukraine has largely succeeded in stabilizing the front without having to accept a Russian breakthrough. With the exception of the Russian attacks in Wuhledar, Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which are still being pursued, the Russians are digging in and building static defenses. The public announcements of a Ukrainian counter-offensive have already had an effect.

What is Ukraine waiting for? Does the weather matter?
Yes. Firm and dry soil is crucial for a rapid mechanized advance. During the Russian invasion in February and March 22, the ground was muddy, which silenced the attack relatively quickly. It has been raining in Ukraine for the past few weeks. That means that Kiev is currently waiting for better conditions. Moreover, Ukraine has realized that the future course of the war will depend on this offensive. Ergo, she took time during the preparations to train fresh and inexperienced soldiers on new equipment, to train maneuver warfare and to prepare war logistics for one or more major offensive operations.

Do you know where Ukraine dares to go?
Based on the current situation and publicly available sources, I see three variants. First, a direct advance from Zaporizhia towards Melitopol and the Crimea. Second, an attack in the east, that is, in the Donbass. And third, roll up the front from Kherson. I also think that a combination of the mentioned options is possible.

What could this look like?
For example, a first attack in the south or west with the operational aim of driving a wedge in the Russian front. Such an offensive would create new opportunities for a second step in the north or west of the front. Therefore, I assume that the Ukrainian offensive will last longer than is currently assumed.

Could it also be that Ukraine ultimately does not launch a counteroffensive at all?
It could also be argued that there is no imminent Ukrainian offensive and that instead Kiev has masterfully deceived the opponent. However, due to international pressure, I expect a major Ukrainian operation in the coming months.

In October 2022, Ukraine surprised many when it initially attacked not in the south, as announced, but in the east. Will we also see a feint this time?
In the fall there were two offensives: a surprising and rapid offensive took place near Kharkiv, the second aimed at liberating Kherson. This was a fairly slow destruction of the Russian supply lines. Currently, Kiev is trying to initiate a dynamic similar to that of the past. This means that Russian leaders are confused with a mix of public announcements and attacks behind the front lines and are forced to deploy their own troops all along the front line. It could soon be a Ukrainian goal to launch another concentrated attack on one wing and then exploit the opportunities this creates in another part of the front.

Ukrainians have received new weapons from the West. Including Leopard 2 tanks from Germany. How big will the impact of these new weapons be on the course of the war?
To date, Ukraine has none of the required Western combat aircraft. But the Western weapons will probably be superior to the Russian systems in many ways. I'm thinking of the Bradley fighting vehicles, Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 main battle tanks, artillery pieces and rocket launchers and ammunition. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine can use these weapons in a coordinated manner.

The Ukrainians had little time to prepare and get acquainted with the new material. Isn't it too early for a counter-offensive?
Ukraine faces a dilemma: on the one hand, it needs time to train its own soldiers in new weapons and to request further assistance. On the other hand, the West insists that they go on the offensive again and achieve success. This is the only way to secure supplies and counter Western war fatigue. The strategic challenge for Kiev right now is to reconcile both claims.

True, the Ukrainians have new material. But what about the staff? Aren't their warriors running low?
Little information is available on this. It is certain that Ukraine must also accept a high death toll. The mobilization potential is increasingly exhausted and human resources must be spared. Regardless of how a possible Ukrainian offensive ends, there will be further human and material losses. After the latest offensives at Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukraine could not use the euphoria. Instead of progressing, one's own strength had to be refreshed.

On the other hand, Russia has been throwing thousands of ill-equipped soldiers into battle for months. According to US figures, 100,000 people have been killed or injured since December. How long can Russia keep up this tactic?
Who would have thought at the beginning of the war that Russia would accept such heavy losses? Compared to Ukraine, Russia is a declining empire that still has reserves. I imagine that Moscow will continue to take this loss-tolerant approach – in the absence of alternatives.

What about the equipment of the Russians? Do they still have main battle tanks? There are also supply problems with artillery ammunition, as Sergey Prigozhin recently complained ...
Reports of Russian material bottlenecks have been with us for quite some time. The sanctions imposed by the West have not yet stopped the Russian war machine. There had previously been internal Russian material disputes between the Wagner group and the regular Russian armed forces. I don't know how many combat-capable tanks Russia has left. What is certain is that a large part of it was destroyed in Ukraine.

Would Russia be able to launch an offensive on its part at this point?
On the Russian side, I do not see any offensive potential at the moment. This would probably require another wave of Russian mobilization

What do you think the Ukrainians are capable of? Will they recapture Crimea in the summer?
I believe in the chances of a Ukrainian offensive succeeding. The question is against what goals it is measured. Retaking Crimea would be a very great Ukrainian triumph, which I cannot imagine at the moment.