“Out of control escalation worries the West”

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The Ukrainians have intensified their shelling of targets on Russian territory in recent days. Two fuel depots in southern Russia and one in Russian-occupied Crimea were hit and two freight trains were derailed by explosions.

The intention: before the announced offensive in Ukraine, which is expected to start in the coming days, the infrastructure of the Russian attackers must be weakened.

Explosions near the Kremlin itself caused a stir on Wednesday night. According to Moscow, they were two intercepted Ukrainian drones whose use had been approved by the United States. Kiev strongly denies this.

The increasing attacks on Russian territory are worrying the West. Under no circumstances should Putin be provoked! Karine Jean-Pierre, 48, White House press secretary, said after the Kremlin incident: “Since the beginning of the conflict, the United States has not encouraged or allowed Ukraine to strike outside its borders. We have made very clear from the start.”

Is Ukraine really acting alone? And how well is Ukraine positioned for the counter-offensive? German military expert Ralph D. Thiele (69) from the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Advice (ISPSW) in Berlin assesses the current situation for Blick.

Will Western Ukraine Help Russia Attacks?
“There are no reliable sources here. At least it is heard from special forces circles that some Western states help and support sabotage actions on Russian territory through their intelligence services. At the same time, there are fears that these actions will be adequately considered and measured and that at least some Ukrainian actors could go too far. The West’s real concern is an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict.”

How great is the danger of a nuclear reaction from Russia?
“In general, there is a risk of a double escalation – one after the other or at the same time. Vertical escalation means more troops, more weapons, more destruction and violence up to and including the first use of tactical nuclear weapons. Horizontal escalation means a conflagration that could also affect Ukraine’s neighbors and even distant regions such as Africa.

Can the Ukrainians attack the Kremlin?
“The drones used in this mission were too small to cover the approximately 600-kilometer route from Ukraine to Moscow. They were probably launched from Russian soil – but by whom remains unanswered. After all, a UJ-22 Airborne drone was on its way to Moscow from Ukraine a week ago before crashing shortly before the Russian capital, apparently due to lack of fuel.

How is the Ukrainian army positioned for the counter-offensive?
“The situation is ambivalent. The weapon systems supplied, such as tanks and artillery, are sufficient for tactical – i.e. smaller, local – offensives. Ammunition remains scarce, Western stocks are exhausted. Many of the veteran Ukrainian soldiers are no longer alive. The counteroffensive mainly thrives on the wealth of information in Western intelligence gathering, Ukrainian combat morale and Russian negligence. That leaves room for surprises, but is not a reliable basis for the hoped-for success.”

Source: Blick